3 Mariners offseason decisions that are aging well, 2 that are painful

When the 2025-26 MLB offseason came to a close, the Seattle Mariners were seen as one of the big winners of the winter. They did lose some key pieces, but they also retained Josh Naylor and went out with a bang by acquiring Brendan Donovan in February.

Several months later, the jury is out on those two moves. Naylor has recovered from a slow start, but he still only has a 96 OPS+ through 48 games. And while Donovan has been terrific at the plate, his defense was a problem early on and now he's serving his second IL stint because of a sports hernia.

These 3 offseason decisions are already paying off for the Mariners

This does not mean, however, that the Mariners' offseason looks worse in retrospect. One of the big moves they've made is already aging well, as are two moves they didn't make.

Trading Harry Ford for Jose A. Ferrer

There was a fan outcry when the Mariners swapped Harry Ford for Jose A. Ferrer back in December. As Ford was a top-100 prospect at the time, was a relatively anonymous lefty reliever really the best return they could get for him?

Cut to now, and all the faults that had always threatened Ford's future in Seattle have already tanked his stock with the Washington Nationals. He has a .578 OPS at the Triple-A level, and he's no longer considered a top-100 talent by MLB Pipeline of Baseball America.

Ferrer, meanwhile, has a 1.90 ERA through his first 25 appearances as a Mariner. We'll admit that we had our doubts about the 26-year-old, but sometimes it feels good to eat crow.

NOT re-signing Jorge Polanco or Eugenio Suárez

The Mariners' five-year, $92.5 million pact with Naylor was the first big move any team made last winter, and the hope was that he would be merely the first returnee from the 2025 roster. They wanted to keep Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez, too.

Instead, Polanco took a two-year, $40 million offer from the New York Mets and Suárez accepted a one-year, $15 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds. Once both were gone, it was hard to look at Seattle's roster and not see all the missing power.

Nevertheless, there was always real risk in the Mariners going too hard after Polanco or Suárez in free agency. And that risk is now playing out for their new teams. Both of the two 30-somethings have been injured for a while now, and each was cold at the plate before going on the IL. Suárez had an 82 OPS+ and three home runs, with Polanco posting a 52 OPS+ and one homer.

NOT trading Randy Arozarena

While there were never any solid rumors indicating the Mariners wanted to do so, there was some buzz at the outset of the offseason that a Randy Arozarena trade could happen. The idea would have been to duck a raise in his salary via arbitration.

Thank goodness nothing came of that. Arozarena has been a rock in the club's generally cold offense, batting .302 with an .860 OPS through 51 games. If anything, he's showing he might be the best hitter available in free agency this winter.

This 1 offseason decision is already backfiring on the Mariners

NOT trading Luis Castillo

This is the other trade the Mariners purportedly could have made for salary relief purposes. Yet while the idea sounded reasonable and even had some roots back to the prior offseason, the team ultimately closed ranks around its major league roster.

Well, now it's saddled with a version of Luis Castillo who posted a 6.34 ERA over nine starts before finally getting demoted to the bullpen on Monday. He's technically meant to work multiple innings as part of a piggyback role, but that plan is already off to a rocky start.

Meanwhile, he's 33 years old and making $24.15 million this year and in 2027, with a $25 million vesting option for 2028. If the Mariners ever had a last good chance to trade Castillo, it may have already passed them by.

Signing Rob Refsnyder

When the Mariners signed Rob Refsnyder to a one-year, $6.25 million in December, it felt inspired. He's no All-Star. But put him in the lineup against a lefty, and you've basically hacked your way into one of the best hitters in baseball.

In theory, anyway. In reality, the 35-year-old has taken 75 trips to the plate and produced only seven hits and six walks. He is 5-for-52 against lefties, which amounts to a staggering degree of failure at literally the one job he's supposed to be doing for the Mariners.

Put it this way: If his roster spot isn't already on the line, it should be.

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