3 bold predictions for the Seattle Mariners' 2024-2025 offseason

The start of the Mariners’ offseason has gone pretty much how every fan expected it to. The team has their iron in pretty much every fire, though the lack of early moves allows the narrative to shift to the constant payroll issues. Jerry Dipoto is likely again tasked with getting creative in navigating yet another tight budget, while revamping this offense. 

Just a couple of weeks removed from the World Series that saw two of the highest payrolls in the game compete for a championship, it begs the question: does ownership need to open its wallet to truly contend, or does Dipoto need to do a better job identifying talent?

No matter which school of thought you align with, both are likely true, and while the payroll will likely see a moderate increase, this may need to be Dipoto’s best offseason yet. He needs to get bold. He needs to think outside the box and leave no stone unturned while proving to the league and fans that this team is ready to contend for a World Series.

3 Bold Predictions for the Seattle Mariners’ offseason

Mariners will dominate the international free agent market

While the Mariners won’t dominate the headlines by signing the big-name free agents similar to teams like the Dodgers or Mets, another market that Dipoto could target to hit a home run this offseason is international free agency. Rarely do we see multiple international names get posted in the same offseason that could have significant ramifications for contending clubs, but here we are.

One of the biggest names in, not only in the international class, but the entire free agent class, could come at a major bargain due to the posting rules. Roki Sasaki is expected to be posted, but due to his age and time spent in the NPB, he would be subject to international free agent bonus pool money. He will not have a free agency experience like Yoshinobu Yamamoto did last offseason. This levels the playing field dramatically and increases the odds for teams like the Mariners, as Sasaki won’t be able to command the dollar figure he acquires. This would be a surprise move and prove to everyone that Dipoto can get free agents to come to the Pacific Northwest. 

Sasaki, while headlining the international lineup, isn’t the only name that could make a lot of sense for Seattle. The team needs offense, and has been cycling through second basemen, hoping something sticks. This could be the year Dipoto gets their answer. Hye-Seong Kim is an intriguing infielder that fits the mold of what it seemed like manager Dan Wilson wanted to get out of the offense. Kim is an athletic, base-stealing offensive threat that hits for average and happens to be one of the best defenders in the NPB. 

There are a few other names that could get posted, like 28-year-old first baseman Kazuma Okamoto, who could make sense as an everyday option or DH. The right-handed slugger has averaged 33 home runs over the last seven years and still offers upside at just 28. The Mariners have some glaring holes and addressing them via the international market could be a smart way for Dipoto to navigate the tough payroll restrictions that John Stanton continuously places upon the organization. 

Dipoto will acquire 3 infield bats

While the outfield and starting rotation seem set, the infield is full of holes. After disappointing seasons from both Jorge Polanco at second base and Josh Rojas at third base, Dipoto will be tasked with finding yet another solution at the two positions. It's likely that the team will have two new starters at those spots. The free agent market is fairly thin at both third and second base, which may force Dipoto and Hollander to resort to the trade market, something he has shown he is comfortable doing.

With two new expected faces — JP Crawford at shortstop and Luke Raley the supposed first baseman right now — where does a third infielder come in? Well, the team still needs to add offense, and given the Mariners expected budget limitations, the free agent first base market actually aligns pretty well. Guys like Josh Bell, Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, and maybe even Christian Walker fit this team like a glove. It gives you an everyday first baseman or DH allowing you to rotate Raley and pretty much any corner outfielder at the DH spot. This team lacks offense, and adding three infielders ensures players like Mitch Garver or Mitch Haniger don't receive regular at-bats.

Mariners' 2025 payroll will be higher than most fans expect

I know, I know. This seems crazy after everything that we have seen from the Mariners the last few years. This is the offseason that things start to flip. Including all estimated arbitration numbers and pre-arbitration figures, the Mariners' payroll stands around the $147 million mark, which is about where they ended up last year. Many fans think the team will hover around that mark, maybe approaching the $160 million figure, but given the need for at least two infielders and likely a bullpen arm or two, spending only $13 million seems like an impossible task for Dipoto, unless he can dump one of the Mitch's contracts, which seems unlikely.

The bold take here is that Stanton allows Dipoto and Hollander to run the payroll up to a crazy figure of $180-$185 million. This would give the Mariners approximately $38 million to construct a roster that figures to compete for the AL West and potentially a World Series. That isn't a ton of money, but given the comments we have heard in previous seasons, this would feel like Dipoto is running an offseason with Steve Cohen's money. Giving Dipoto nearly $40 million to add two, three or four players would be the greatest flexibility he's had yet.

The excitement surrounding Mariners fans would be at an all-time high, while instilling a sense of trust and faith in ownership to commit to winning.