Why the likelihood of the Mariners wasting the 2026 season is so scary

There's been several times in recent weeks when the Mariners have suffered demoralizing losses, but you still believed there was at least some modicum of hope they could make the playoffs. However, Tuesday evening's 10-5 defeat by the Rangers feels different; as if those faint playoff dreams have finally evaporated into thin air like a first pitch home run off Bryce Miller. This is now set up to be among the most disappointing seasons in franchise history, with the added blow of plenty of uncertainty moving forward.

This time last season things were looking up for the Mariners, after what had been an aggressive trade deadline which saw them acquire Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez (along with Caleb Ferguson). They were sitting one game back of the Astros at the AL West Summit with a 77-68 record following 145 games, while also holding the final wild card spot. They had just beaten the Cardinals 5-3 and were in the early stages of a sequence which would see them win 17 of 18, to claim their first division title in 24 years.

Now compare this to the 2026 season, with the Mariners sitting at a lowly 67-78 at the same 145-game mark. They sit seven games back of those damn Astros at the top of the division, and 6.5 games out of the final AL wild card spot. According to FanGraphs, the M's odds of making the playoffs are down to a season-low 2.8 percent, and even that seems somewhat generous.

No matter where you delve it makes for frustrating reading, especially when you consider the collective talent on this Mariners team. The pitching staff ranks 18th in the majors in team ERA, with the bullpen specifically even worse at 23rd. They rank dead last in both runs scored per game and team Fielding Run Value.

A perfect storm of disastrous outcomes for a Mariners team with so much potential

However, what really makes things bad is the sheer uncertainty of the post-2026 landscape, with it being in stark contrast to the offseason last year. Back then, the Mariners had come within just eight outs of a first ever trip to the World Series. Yes, Naylor, Suárez and Jorge Polanco were all set for free agency, but the front office had been given a mandate to keep payroll up.

Jerry Dipoto became just the second person in franchise history to be named Baseball America's Executive of the Year. (Pat Gillick won the award in 2001.) It was safe to say he had some political capital to spend, as his stock with ownership had never been higher. All signs pointed towards some kind of "run it back" campaign, that subsequently resulted in high hopes and expectations for 2026, both internally and externally.

Now? Well, pending a collapse of historic proportions by the Astros (and to a lesser extent the Rangers), even a winning streak by the Mariners is extremely unlikely to save them. As a result, the pending offseason has the makings of a scary scenario, which will only reinforce what a wasted opportunity this season was.

The Mariners are probably going to lose Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford in free agency. Arozarena might not offer much defensively, but he has been their best and most consistent offensive threat this season, while Crawford will be sorely missed as one of the leaders in the clubhouse. Brendan Donovan and Matt Brash have both had lost seasons through injury, and while they're both excellent when available, can either be counted on to be more durable in 2027?

So much uncertainty on and off the field for the Mariners, while also wondering about what could have been

Despite the understandable fanfare surrounding Colt Emerson, he just didn't really look MLB-ready, and you can only hope this was because of his lingering wrist issue. Raleigh and Rodríguez both regressed from last season, and similarly, the hope is a full offseason to completely rest and recover from their respective oblique injury and concussion issue helps. On the subject of regression, this was effectively the case for the entire pitching staff, with 2024's impressive productivity already a taunting and increasingly distant memory.

It seems fair to assume that Dan Wilson is gone as manager, with the perception -- fair or not -- that he has been out of his depth this season. You also have to wonder if the same is true of Dipoto, no matter how good he has been over the years at talking up the job he does. No one will ever doubt his ability to find, draft and develop young talent, but being set to oversee just two playoff appearances in 11 seasons with the Mariners is a damning indictment.

On top of all this, we have the looming prospect of a lockout once the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1. This is what really makes the whole situation in Seattle so scary and uncertain, as nobody's going to be able to wash their hands of 2026 and assume 2027 will be better.

As much as we hate to sound so negative, this is what years of following the Mariners does to you, with the expectation of something bad happening almost woven into the very fabric of the average fan's DNA. That vibe seemed to change following last season, but in the space of less than 12 months all of the good will has nearly dissipated. As such, the only thing more scary than what lies ahead, is the thought that perhaps the 2025 campaign was the missed opportunity of all missed opportunities to claim that elusive World Series berth.

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