What the Mariners must do to avoid a disastrous early exit from 2025 playoffs

There's only one more day to go until the Seattle Mariners can finally begin their playoff quest. And when they do so, they'll have a status that they haven't had since 2001: World Series favorites.

It's one of those labels that elicits both excitement and caution. Excitement, because this team really does look that good. Caution, because pride is notoriously what comes before the fall. Many Mariners fans know that all too well from what happened in 2001, when a 116-win team didn't even make it to the Fall Classic.

It will nonetheless be a huge disappointment if the Mariners don't at least make it past the Detroit Tigers in the American League Division Series. The Mariners are the better team, and the World Series favorite vibes don't come from nowhere. It's almost a consensus, with everyone from FanGraphs to The Athletic to CBS Sports tabbing the Mariners as at least the likely AL champs.

Either way, it'll come down to what winning in October always comes down to: planning and execution. So here's a helpful breakdown of dos and don'ts for the Mariners if they want to extend their October stay for as long as possible.

3 dos for the Mariners in the 2025 playoffs

1. Maximize the offensive pressure

Especially after last year, it still feels weird to look at the Mariners and clearly see their offense as their most powerful tool. It especially peaked after Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez joined Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena at the trade deadline, and this lineup even goes deeper than those five.

As the Mariners hit 238 of them during the regular season to rank third in MLB, the home run ball is this offense's preferred means of pushing runs across. And that bodes well, as hitting the ball over the fence has become a tried-and-true way to earn Ws in the postseason.

And yet, the Mariners must not forget that they also excel in drawing walks (9th in MLB) and stealing bases (3rd in MLB). If they can also tap into those strengths, they can really push opposing pitching staffs to their breaking points.

2. Defend T-Mobile Park

Probably more than any other contender in the league, the Mariners really needed to earn a top seed and, with it, home-field advantage for the first round of the playoffs. And here's why:

• Home Record: 51-30
• Road Record: 39-42

The Mariners just plain dominated at T-Mobile Park, and especially with a 23-3 run at home between July 31 and September 25. That had a lot to do with it being a happy place for their pitching staff, which has the best home ERA (3.28) of any team left standing.

That the Mariners had a 4.50 ERA on the road tells you all you need to know about the threat they'll face if they can't win most (preferably all) of their home games. It's that simple.

3. Trust the bullpen (no, really)

The Mariners rotation was not as dominant in 2025 as it was in 2024, but one constant remained: The starters racked up a ton of innings, ranking fourth overall with 882.1 innings.

But lest Dan Wilson be tempted to keep his starters' leashes nice and long for October, a few words of warning are necessary. Bryan Woo is already physically compromised and Logan Gilbert and George Kirby both missed time with injuries this year. Luis Castillo is fine, but is also 32 years old.

Besides, there's no longer any need to hide the bullpen. It was shaky for much of the year, but it found its footing with a 3.12 ERA and 1.5 fWAR in September. Wilson knows he can count on Andrés Muñoz, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash and Eduard Bazardo, and there's a ton of potential in Emerson Hancock and even Bryce Miller if he's needed in relief.

3 don'ts for the Mariners in the 2025 playoffs

1. Keep the strikeouts to a minimum

Strikeouts were the fundamental flaw for the Mariners offensively in 2024, when they led MLB with 1,625 of the darn things. Under Edgar Martínez and Kevin Seltzer, this year went a lot better. The Mariners dropped their strikeout rate by 3.5 percentage points, the biggest decline in the league.

Even still, the Mariners finished tied for the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league. It's an Achilles heel for an offense in the best of times, and potentially that much more so with only the best pitching staffs left standing.

2. Play clean defense

The Mariners weren't necessarily a bad defensive team this year, as they finished above-average in efficiency and in the bottom 10 of the league for errors. Yet their true defensive quality was a mixed bag. Whereas Julio anchored a solid squad in the outfield, the infield posted -27 Outs Above Average.

Naylor is solid at first base, but Suárez and Polanco are below-average at third and second and J.P. Crawford had his worst season yet at shortstop. If there any leaks among that group, the cost could be precious baserunners and even more precious runs.

3. Keep the ball in the yard (especially on the road)

Apropos of the earlier note about how home runs and wins tend to go hand-in-hand in the playoffs, it will be just as crucial that the Mariners avoid allowing balls over the fence. That alone is a concern, as they only ranked 14th with 192 homers allowed in the regular season.

On the road — there's that terrifying three-word phrase again — they were even worse. The M's allowed 102 homers in road games, the most of any playoff team. If they continue to struggle to plug that leak, even their home-field advantage may not save them.