2025 MLB Playoffs: Mariners get their dream ALDS opponent after Tigers advance

The Seattle Mariners finally know who they're playing in the American League Division Series. And the last time the M's saw this particular team, they kicked their butts so hard that they went into a tailspin that lasted for the rest of the regular season.

Granted, the Detroit Tigers made like that one guy in Monty Python and the Holy Grail and got better. After ceding the AL Central title to the Cleveland Guardians with a historic collapse, the Tigers went right into Cleveland for the Wild Card Series and beat those same Guardians. A 6-3 win on Thursday sealed the deal.

Even still, Mariners analyst Ryan Rowland-Smith had a point when he identified the Guardians as the tougher potential matchup for Seattle in the ALDS. The Guardians would have brought the hottest pitching staff in MLB to T-Mobile Park, as their 24-8 run after August 26 was fueled by a league-best 2.61 ERA.

The Tigers, on the other hand, don't really have an identity that is easy to pin down. That puts them in stark contrast to the Mariners, who very much do.

The Tigers are the Mariners' dream opponent in the ALDS

For posterity's sake, here's how these two teams stack up heading into the ALDS, a best-of-five series that will begin on Saturday at T-Mobile Park:

• Tigers Regular Season: 87-75, +67 run differential
• Mariners Regular Season: 90-72, +72 run differential
• Season Series: Mariners 4-2, with +16 run differential

Though the Tigers and Mariners finished with similar records and run differentials, they could not have ended the year more differently. The sweep that Seattle notched in Detroit in July kicked off a 42-27 finish, compared to a 28-41 finish for Detroit.

The offensive matchup favors the Mariners, who topped the Tigers in scoring (766 to 758) and even more dramatically in home runs (238 to 198), stolen bases (161 to 61) and walks (544 to 511). The two offenses were on different planets in September, with the Mariners leading MLB with a 128 wRC+ and the Tigers ranking 24th with an 87 wRC+.

The Mariners also had a better team ERA than the Tigers, and the gap only widened after things settled down for Seattle following the trade deadline. They finished with a 3.91 ERA after July 31, compared to 4.35 for the Tigers.

The Mariners do have one apparent disadvantage

The fly in the ointment for the Mariners right now concerns Bryan Woo, whose availability for the ALDS remains in doubt because of tightness in his right pectoral muscle. He did throw a bullpen session on Thursday, but Tim Booth and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times report that he may not be available until Game 5 next Friday — and that's at the earliest.

For their part, the Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball on their side in Tarik Skubal. He'll go at least once in this series — starting with Game 2 on Sunday on four days' rest — and he'll be coming in hot after striking out a career-high 14 in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.

Skubal is only one guy, however, and dare we say the Mariners had his number this year? They faced him twice and tagged him for seven runs in 10.2 innings.

Before the Mariners even have to worry about facing Skubal, they'll get to really put their home-field advantage to use by trotting out some combination of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby in Games 1 and 2. All three dominated at T-Mobile Park this year, and they'll be up against a Tigers team that had one of the worst road offenses in the league during the regular season.

This is playoff baseball we're talking about, so we're pretty much obligated to acknowledge that nothing is guaranteed. Also worth acknowledging is the reality that playoff baseball has historically not agreed with the Mariners. They have yet to even go to a World Series, after all.

It's OK to feel good about a matchup, however. And in this case, the Mariners have every right to feel downright confident.

Dates for Tigers vs. Mariners ALDS Matchup

• Game 1: Saturday, October 4 in Seattle (Time TBD)
• Game 2: Sunday, October 5 in Seattle at 5:03 p.m. PT
• Game 3: Tuesday, October 7 in Detroit (Time TBD)
• Game 4*: Wednesday, October 8 in Detroit (Time TBD)
• Game 5*: Friday, October 10 in Seattle (Time TBD)