We checked how far the Mariners' playoff odds have fallen, and the answer is shocking

Oh boy, it's sure been a rough campaign so far in Seattle, with the Mariners standing at 23-27 through 50 games. This had us scrambling to check their current playoffs compared to when they entered the season favored by many to represent the AL in the World Series. And the awful truth is ... well ... not that awful at all!

Despite the demoralizing start by the Mariners, their odds haven't shifted much. FanGraphs still gives them the best chance of making the playoffs from the AL West, with odds of 67.2 percent ahead of Wednesday's rubber match versus the White Sox. Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus still has the M's as the AL's best World Series bet outside the Yankees.

So, what gives? Well significantly, the Mariners haven't had much luck on the injury front, with a whole host of absences to key personnel. Seriously, who wouldn't be affected by playing without the likes of Cal Raleigh, Brendan Donovan, Matt Brash and Gage Speier? On the bright side none of the injuries appear to be specially serious, and the sooner they can return, the better.

The history of the Jerry Dipoto era in Seattle provides more reason for optimism

You have to believe the return of Raleigh, Donovan, etc at full health will in turn have a positive impact on results in tight ballgames. Certainly a 6-12 record in one-run games is not good, but this surely won't remain the case when everyone is back, combined with the Mariners traditionally doing well in this area during the Jerry Dipoto era in Seattle.

On the subject of the Diptoto era, as underwhelming as 23-27 is, consider that the Mariners had the same record through 50 games in 2021 but ended up finishing 90-72. Further, when they ended their 20-year playoff drought a year later with another 90 wins, they started even worse through 50 games with a 21-29 record. The point is recent history backs up the ongoing narrative this ballclub traditionally starts slow, but always finishes strong.

However, on the off-chance the Mariners don't turn into their usual second-half powerhouse mode, this might now even matter that much. The reality is the AL has been underwhelming so far in 2026, with just four ballclubs above .500, compared to nine in the NL. Helping the M's even more, the AL West specifically might be the worst division in the majors full stop.

The Mariners remain the strongest ballclub in an underwhelming AL West

We can acknowledge the Athletics are building something ahead of their official move to Las Vegas. And yet, it speaks volumes they only top the AL West with a .500 record and an advantage which seems unsustainable, at least this season. As Jim Bowden of The Athletic points out, how long the A’s stay in contention is all up to their pitching, which has been below average.

As far as Bowden is concerned, the A's will eventually run out of steam and look more like a second or third-place team in the division. At the same time, the 1999 Baseball America MLB Executive of the Year also expects the Mariners to get their act together and move past the A's before long.

Ultimately, we appreciate it currently feels like a game of survival and trying to just hang in there for Dan Wilson and his players. However, everything is seemingly pointing towards the Mariners eventually turning the ship around and returning to their preseason status as genuine contenders.

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