Triston Casas' huge 2025 goals have Mariners fans re-thinking failed trade

There was plenty of talk during the offseason about how the Seattle Mariners were given a limited amount of spare payroll — around just $15 million — to improve the roster. This led to speculation over whether Jerry Dipoto would break up the team's elite rotation, specifically in a trade for the power bat they needed to boost the lineup.

The Mariners ultimately kept their fab five together, something which the majority of fans are happy about. However, there's one oft-mentioned trade candidate who is now forcing some of the base to reconsider if keeping the rotation intact was such a good idea, particularly with the infield still looking so underwhelming.

We're talking about first baseman Triston Casas, who the Boston Red Sox apparently were willing to trade to the Mariners. Per a report by Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times from December, there were "exploratory talks" between the two sides, but the Red Sox asked for Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo and this ended negotiations.

Have the Mariners made a mistake with Triston Casas?

This leads to the question of whether the Mariners missed a shot by not taking the plunge and acquiring Casas. He is an intriguing young power bat who is under team control through 2028, and he could have been just what the team needed to strengthen first base.

Such is the potential of the 2018 first-round draft pick and previously top rated prospect, and they're leaning into it in Boston. As per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe (subscription required), chief baseball officer Craig Breslow believes the 25-year-old Casas of being capable of posting 40 home runs and 120 RBI in a season.

As for Casas himself, he sounds like a player with the confidence to achieve something only previously done by nine players in team history. As he told Speier regarding Breslow's 40/120 target: "I think that is the expectation for the first baseman of the Boston Red Sox. I think if I’m not able to do that, then I don’t deserve a job here. I don’t feel that’s out of my reach. I feel like that’s something that’s very possible for me to accomplish."

This level of confidence would also explain why Casas turned down a contract extension from the Red Sox during the 2023-24 offseason. He clearly has a lot of faith that he can be worth more than what was offered to him at that time.

Mariners go with results over potential

However, all the potential in the world only matters so much if you don't fulfil it. And in this respect, Casas has only shown what he is truly capable of over the course of a season once. This came in 2023, when he produced 24 homers and 65 RBI on the way to a 129 OPS+ in 132 games.

Casas still looked decent last year, but took a step back in his productivity as he was limited to 63 games due to a rib injury. The hope in Boston is that he is now fully recovered and ready to bounce back, although he has struggled so far in spring training with one hit in 13 at-bats.

While there will be a case of "what if" if Casas achieves his 40/120 dream, it is our opinion that the Mariners did the right thing in not giving up Miller or Woo. Both pitchers have already shown what they can do in the Majors and are further along in their development when compared to the Red Sox slugger, irrespective of playing a different position.

You could make the case that if the Red Sox had asked for Luis Castillo instead, it might have been more appealing for the Mariners to part with the oldest and (easily) most expensive member of the rotation. Although, the recent news that George Kirby will likely start the 2025 season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation only reinforces the value of keeping this stellar rotation together.

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