There's a major warning sign lurking in Mariners' 2026 projections

Many fans are understandably excited about what the Mariners can accomplish in the upcoming season. The offseason may still not be as active as some would like, but the Josh Naylor acquisition filled in a major gap in the team's lineup while other pickups like Jose A. Ferrer and Rob Refsnyder are roster improvements, albeit slight ones.

The young pillars of the franchise seem ready to do big things and overall, the team has a lot going for them. Dan Szymborski's annual ZiPS projections seemed bullish on the roster thus far and the Mariners already look like one of the better teams on paper. However, they're far from perfect and one glaring weakness may be a legitimate cause for concern.

Several projection systems are predicting that Randy Arozarena will regress in 2026

Arozarena was a solid player for the Mariners in 2025. He posted a 120 wRC+, sixth amongst left fielders, hitting 27 home runs and stealing 31 bases along the way. His hard-hit rate of 50.6 placed him in the top decile of qualified hitters and his quality of contact was pretty good overall.

Defensively, he was either satisfactory or bad depending on which statistic you choose to look at. He had -1 Defensive Runs Saved in left field but -8 Fielding Run Value. This also explains the meaningful discrepancy between his rWAR (4.0) and fWAR (2.9) as both statistics are calculated using different defensive metrics — rWAR uses DRS and fWAR uses UZR.

Looking ahead, projection systems like ZiPS and Steamer are estimating that he'll end up around 2.0 fWAR. It's a solid mark but perhaps less than what the front office is hoping to get out of him based on his potential salary for next season. MLBTradeRumors projected him to earn $18.2 million next year, giving him a higher salary than all of his teammates except Julio Rodríguez and Luis Castillo.

His defense will likely continue to be a tick below average at best, but regression in his offensive production could be what drags him down. Last year, he hit a brick wall after July, managing just an 89 wRC+ over his last 241 plate appearances of the season. This slump carried over into the postseason where despite lofty expectations, his .574 OPS over 56 plate appearances made him more of a liability than an asset.

Projection systems are hardly the gospel truth, especially when predicting just one season, but there's evidence to suggest that Arozarena's best work in a Mariners uniform may already be behind him. The front office already brought in some outfield depth in the form of Refsnyder, and more help could be called upon if Randy isn't able to return to form.

This will be a big prove-it year for him. Not only does he have to get back on track following a disappointing final three months of baseball, he'll also be hitting free agency in 2027. The Mariners are unlikely to seek an extension or pursue him in free agency so if he wants to sign a lucrative deal, he has another year to give his stock price one final boost.

Leading into 2025, Seattle's outfield seemed like a point of major strength. Now that we've gotten to see how all of the pieces fit, the outlook is less optimistic but still positive overall. Randy Arozarena still has what it takes to be an impactful part of this lineup but the burden of proof now lies squarely on his shoulders.