The Mariners' 2026 ZiPS projections are out, and there's a lot to like

The Seattle Mariners just had their best season since 2001, which means 2026 will be the franchise's most hotly anticipated campaign since the 2002 season. Hopefully, this time the team will avoid a 23-win swing in the wrong direction, resulting in absence from the playoffs.

Time will obviously tell, but it's not too soon to imagine how the 2026 Mariners might perform. The roster is mostly complete, after all, and it largely resembles the one that ripped off 90 wins in the regular season and fell one win short of the World Series this year. It should at least be regression-proof, right?

Even better, it might be one of the top rosters in the American League. Such is the forecast for the 2026 Mariners on the part of ZiPS — that's the sZymborski Projection System, for those who aren't in the know.

The Mariners' 2026 ZiPS projections are out, and there's a lot to like

Dan Szymborski himself dropped his system's 2026 projections for the Mariners at FanGraphs last week, and the main takeaway is that they project for a winning percentage in the .550-580 range. Bottom line: "That’s enough for them to likely be one of the American League’s elites when I run the official projected standings in March."

A .550 winning percentage would put the Mariners in the same 90-win range that was good enough to capture their first AL West title in 24 years. A .580 winning percentage would put them in 94-win territory, a mark the franchise hasn't hit since it won an AL-record 116 games in 2001.

And bear in mind, projection systems like ZiPS tend to be on the conservative side with their forecasts. It's therefore telling that ZiPS doesn't see the Mariners as having many true weaknesses next year.

Between Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, the Mariners project to have four starters with 2+ WAR in their 2026 rotation. The lone exception is Bryce Miller, who actually led Seattle hurlers in rWAR in 2024 and was the club's best starter by the end of its playoff run this year.

For the starting lineup, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez project for 5-WAR seasons after both finished in the 7-rWAR range this year. Otherwise, the only position that doesn't project for at least 2 WAR is designated hitter, and that picture has changed since these projections went out.

The DH spot figures to feature a platoon of Dominic Canzone and the newly signed Rob Refsnyder. Each had a wRC+ of at least 150 in platoon matchups this year, meaning left-on-right for Canzone and right-on-left for Refsnyder. To put that in context, the 150 wRC+ neighborhood is where Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto lived this year.

This is not to suggest one can't poke holes at ZiPS' faith in next year's Mariners. The system is bullish on the same right field tandem (i.e., Victor Robles and Luke Raley) that was complicit in a .618 OPS and 0.5 rWAR this season. It's also bullish on second base and third base, which are high on upside but short on experience. Maybe Cole Young will be a solid regular at second base, and maybe he won't. Maybe one of Ben Williamson or Colt Emerson will hold down third base, or maybe neither will.

Still, whenever you find yourself insisting that there should actually be question marks where a projection system has exclamation points, that's how you know things are looking up for your team. At least until the Mariners start playing actual games, there's no harm in indulging at how good that feels.