The ship has sailed on a Matt Chapman trade fantasy between Mariners and Giants

The Seattle Mariners wanted Matt Chapman as a free agent once upon a time, and a trade for the five-time Gold Glove third baseman seemed reasonable even as recently as last month. So, that the idea now reads like fantasy goes to show how much can happen in a month.

The change doesn't so much concern the San Francisco Giants' willingness to field offers for Chapman. They're prepared to listen on him and several other high-priced players, including Rafael Devers and Willy Adames — clearly, Buster Posey has regrets about his Franken-roster.

That earlier allusion to the M's wanting Chapman as a free agent after the 2023 season is true, at least to the extent that they discussed signing him internally. But that was before his 2024 campaign with the Giants inflated his market value to a point where he was able to command a six-year, $151 million extension. Further, it was well before the M's shook up this year's infield.

When we pitched Chapman as a trade fit for the Mariners in early May, it was at a moment when Colt Emerson was still at Triple-A Tacoma and racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate, to boot. Well, he now has a 118 OPS+ to show for 101 major league plate appearances, and it already looks like he and J.P. Crawford can work well together at shortstop and third base, respectively.

There are no good answers for how a Matt Chapman-to-Seattle trade would work

Even so, there was discussion on social media over the weekend as to whether the Mariners could be a landing spot for Chapman, perhaps in a bad-contract-swap deal involving Luis Castillo.

It's not an outrageous suggestion. Castillo has been the subject of trade rumors for a couple years at this point, with Adam Jude of The Seattle Times writing on Sunday that the Mariners are expected to field offers for the three-time All-Star righty, "if not outright shop him."

As bad contracts go, however, these two things are not the same:

• Luis Castillo: Owed $24.15 million in 2026 and 2027, with $25 million vesting option for 2028
• Matt Chapman: Owed $25.17 million annually through 2030

Since Chapman is owed a lot more money, the fact that he's still a productive player — 2.8 rWAR compared to Castillo's -0.9 — wouldn't protect the Giants from having to eat some of his remaining contract to facilitate a trade.

Even if the Giants were willing to do that, they would surely need to get some prospects back from the Mariners to make it worth their while. In that case, the deal would be a double-whammy for Seattle as a long-term risk. Chapman is already 33, after all, and he still only has a .386 slugging percentage even after shaking off a slow start to 2026.

As opposed to last month, there's also the more basic reality of how a Chapman trade would force the Mariners to choose between him or Crawford at third base. Choosing Chapman and relegating Crawford to a reserve role would be a potential clubhouse bomb, given how many times the latter has proven his leadership bona fides. Including him in a trade for Chapman might not be any better.

All this is doing a jig around the reality that the Mariners do need another right-handed bat, but there's a more straightforward path to take. Since he's not up to the task, they could get someone else to fill Rob Refsnyder's shoes as a resident RF/DH platoon guy. We recently pitched a Castillo-for-Seiya Suzuki swap, and Jude went so far as to say the Mariners "would probably consider" it if the idea came up in talks with the Chicago Cubs.

If the Mariners do make a deal with the Giants, it's more likely to be for one of their relievers, such as Caleb Kilian or JT Brubaker. The Chapman dream had its day, and it passed.

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