The only stat that will make Mariners fans feel better about dismal June

The Mariners ended June on a high with two wins versus the Angels, to take them back above .500. However, the reality is it was a rough month for the M's, particularly offensively, with significant concerns about their ability to be a genuine World Series contenders come September time. At the same time, no team had worse luck during June, as evidenced by a -.018 difference between wOBA and xwOBA. It was the biggest negative gap in the majors.

Look, we get that all teams have to deal with bad luck during the course of a 162-game slog. And the Mariners have undoubtedly underperformed offensively, ranking 23rd in runs per game, 26th in batting average, and 25th in OPS.

Further, June specifically was just plain dismal, as the Mariners were tied for the fifth-fewest runs and had the third-worst OPS in the majors. They even went on a run of 13 games with three or fewer runs, which set an unwanted franchise record. And yet, you can't look past the fact their lack of good luck was on the verge of some kind of farcical parody. (Something M's fans are well-versed in.)

Mariners are actually in a good spot considering their bad luck

As alluded to up top, the Mariners had a .294 wOBA during June, whereas they had a xwOBA of .312. This is just some brutally bad luck, with a prime example coming during last Wednesday's game in Pittsburgh, when the M's hit a bunch of warning-track fly balls with nothing to show for them. Heck, perhaps the fans should almost be impressed their team was able to go 13-14 for the month, when faced with the brunt of the sporting gods' cruel sense of humor.

We promise this is not some attempt to manufacture optimism within the Mariners fanbase, which is understandably frustrated by an underachieving team. A sense of frustration which reached a season-high level of intensity after the M's threw away Sunday's rubber match in Cleveland with some questionable bullpen moves. And yet, it's also tough to win consistently when you're dealing with more bad luck than any other team in the majors.

In this respect, keep in mind the Mariners have the second-biggest negative gap between wOBA and xwOBA for the 2026 season as a whole. Suddenly, being just half a game out of first place in their division and only 2.5 games out of the second overall seed in the AL is actually inspiring. And it's not as if the Mariners are novices when it comes to slow starts.

Mariners hoping for a similar turnaround to the last time fan morale was so low

As awful as the vibe was following Sunday's 6-5 loss to the Guardians, let's not forget morale was similarly low around the same time last year. The Mariners traveled to Detroit just ahead of the All-Star break, having just been swept by the Yankees and sitting 7.0 games out of first place in the AL West. However, the M's proceeded to take all three games versus the Tigers in dominating fashion, and they never really looked back after that.

Ultimately, the talent on this Mariners roster is unquestionable, and they just need to start playing more consistently on a collective basis. At the same time, they're also beyond overdue a change in their fortunes at the plate.

If that happens -- and surely the M's can't be so unlucky for an entire season?!?! -- then fans will start to see a team playing more like the one which was picked by plenty of media experts preseason as favorites to win the AL Pennant.

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