The Mariners' Cal Raleigh problem is barely concealing their Josh Naylor problem

Josh Naylor was one of the most exciting free agent acquisitions of the offseason. He inked his deal just a few weeks after the conclusion of the World Series, becoming the first major position player pieces to come off the board. Both parties seemed immensely excited to get the deal done, explaining the urgency, and it seemed like the Mariners would finally have a convincing offensive threat at first base.

Yet Naylor hasn't been nearly as productive as he was last year. In just 210 plate appearances after being acquired from the Diamondbacks, he posted a 137 OPS+ with 19 stolen bases and 2.2 rWAR. Across 400 plate appearances this season, he has a 93 OPS+ with -0.1 rWAR. He's one of several players that have taken a meaningful step back but unlike his peers, the problem is less obvious.

Naylor's Statcast numbers are hiding the reason for his offensive struggles in 2026

MLB recently added a new tool in Baseball Savant that allows users to easily compare Statcast percentiles head to head. When getting a side by side look at Josh Naylor's 2025 and 2026 seasons, it's not obvious why he's struggling so much this year. In fact, he's actually chasing, whiffing, and striking out less relative to his peers while getting optimal launch angles almost four times as frequently. So what's actually going on?

An aspect of his hitting that has clearly regressed is his power. Other than launch angles, his other quality of contact numbers like average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel rate have all dipped. It's not significant but his current average exit velocity of 87.6 mph is low enough to be noticeable. It puts him in the same realm as light-hitting middle infielders like Ezequiel Tovar (87.2 mph) and Xavier Edwards (87.1 mph).

It may seem like he's grounding out more frequently this season, especially since he's grounded into 14 double plays (3rd in MLB) but his ground ball rate is actually 43.8%, lower than his career average of 47.1%. He is hitting more pop ups but he's also pulling the ball in the air more frequently and his batted ball profile doesn't look terrible.

For Cal Raleigh, the problems at the plate are more obvious and he's more open about what he plans to do to get back on track. For Naylor, the situation is far more opaque and it has been further masked by Raleigh's slump. The front office still seems to have faith in both players but if Naylor doesn't turn things around, he could be another iceberg the Mariners will have to navigate around in the second half.

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