2 things that could make the Mariners' 2nd half, 2 that could break the season

Aside from the frivolities, the All-Star break should serve an important purpose for the Mariners — giving them some time off. This year has been anything but consistent for Seattle as they've hovered around .500 almost all season. They're currently barely holding on to a Wild Card spot and have ceded the top spot in the AL West to the Rangers.

Figuring things out in the final 65 games of the 2026 campaign will be imperative to keeping the team's championship aspirations alive. But what are some specific things that could cause the Mariners to rise to the occasion or sink to the bottom?

Here's what will make or break the rest of the season for the Mariners.

Make: Getting reinforcements off the injured list

Long-term stints on the IL have limited the abilities of several important components of the roster. Cooper Criswell and Matt Brash have been big losses for the bullpen and Brendan Donovan's absence has been just one of many reasons for a lackluster offense. Even Julio Rodríguez has missed time due to being hit by an errant throw.

But these players are getting closer to returning to action. Brash and Criswell are expected to return in late August while Donovan recently began a rehab assignment with the Arizona Complex League. Julio should be back on the team as soon as they return to action against the Giants this weekend.

These players' replacements have tried valiantly to hold down the fort, but Seattle hasn't been able to trot out their A-team in quite some time. Hopefully, with everyone back to full health, the performance on the field will return to preseason expectations.

Make: Getting even more elite pitching

In keeping with their usual selves, the Mariners have a combined ERA of 3.61 (6th in MLB). Even with injuries and their attempted piggyback protocol, they're still one of the best at run prevention. Believe it or not, some of their best arm talent could still be stashed away in the minor leagues.

It has been well-known that the team intends to call up Kade Anderson at some point in the second half of the year. Anderson's unbelievable numbers in Double-A have given fans a taste of what's to come when he's eventually promoted and pitching meaningful innings for Seattle.

Ryan Sloan hasn't quite put up the same numbers for the Travelers as Anderson, but he's got as much prospect pedigree, if not more. His recent showing at the Futures Game reminded people just why he's seen by some as a better pitching prospect than even Seth Hernandez.

Whether it's in the bullpen or somewhere in the rotation, getting one or both of these arms on the big-league squad could help the Mariners lean into their strengths even more. Scoring a handful of runs won't matter if the opposing team is held to even fewer.

Break: Cal Raleigh's continued slump

It just hasn't been Raleigh's year. After a freezing cold first month, he was placed on the injured list for the first time in his career with an oblique strain. There were some hopes that it would be enough to revitalize a major offensive slump but there have been no signs of life since. Since returning in mid-June, he's slashing just .185/.323/.296 over 99 plate appearances.

On the bright side, his plate discipline is still there as demonstrated by his 12.5% walk rate but the power is completely missing in action. His quality of contact has fallen off a cliff and his hard-hit rate of 32.5% is on-par with the likes of Joey Ortiz and Nolan Arenado, neither of whom are exactly offensive powerhouses in 2026.

Failing to catch up to velocity has doomed him to offensive mediocrity this season and he's slugging just .185 against four-seamers. Struggles against heaters have turned him from the lineup's offensive bedrock into its biggest liability. Without a turnaround in the next few months, Seattle's run production will continue to suffer as will their playoff hopes.

Break: An underwhelming trade deadline

It was recently reported that the Mariners are shopping one of their starting pitchers with the most likely candidate being Luis Castillo. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like suitors would exactly be chomping at the bit to acquire his contract. He's owed a considerable amount of money through 2028 and has already seen a steep decline in his numbers, pitching to a 4.93 ERA and 4.16 FIP over 87.2 innings this year.

Unless the organization is willing to part with some of their more alluring prospect capital, they may not have the assets necessary to drive a more impactful reload of the roster. The team has plenty of needs but the front office may not be willing to pay the price to fill them. With plenty of teams still in the playoff race in the American League, it may be a seller's market at this year's deadline. If Seattle remains risk-averse and makes smaller, incremental moves, it may not be enough to elevate the team to the next level.

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