Tarik Skubal's salary ambitions prove a Mariners trade never would have worked

It’s been a minute since Seattle Mariners fans seriously played the Tarik Skubal trade game without immediately laughing ourselves out of the room. We did the winter thing: see Seattle’s name tossed into the rumor blender, picture Skubal carving at T-Mobile Park, and pretend we’re totally fine with whatever prospect package Detroit would demand. Then reality showed up.

Now, we’re not talking about “could the Mariners line up a prospect offer?” We’re talking about whether the Mariners would ever want to live in the same neighborhood as Skubal’s 2026 salary fight.

Mariners fans can stop dreaming as Skubal’s arb fight turns absurd

Per the arbitration filing figures, Skubal filed at $32 million while the Tigers filed at $19 million — a $13 million gap that’s basically an arb case and a hostage negotiation rolled into one. And ESPN’s reporting framed it exactly how it reads: historically huge, potentially precedent-setting, and complicated by Detroit’s “file-and-trial” approach that can turn negotiations into a courtroom situation fast. 

From the Mariners lens, that’s the entire story. When Seattle fans were really letting themselves dream on Skubal as a “sure, why not?” blockbuster, the projected number for his 2026 arbitration salary was $17.8 million. That’s still expensive, but that’s totally okay when you’re talking yourself into a one-year “all-in” push.

Thirty-two million is not squintable. Thirty-two million is “this player almost makes more than your next two highest-paid guys combined” territory.

FanGraphs’ RosterResource has Seattle’s current 2026 payroll picture with Julio Rodríguez at about $20.2M total salary and Luis Castillo around $24.15M as the top-end reference points on the books. So Skubal’s ask isn’t just “a raise.” It’s a number that would immediately become the biggest single-season payroll commitment Seattle is carrying, and by a lot.

And that’s before you even get to the part where Skubal is in his final trip through arbitration before free agency. Meaning: you’re not trading the farm for a cost-controlled ace you can comfortably keep forever. You’re trading the farm for one season of an ace, and a salary figure that would force Seattle into the kind of public, bruising fight the organization almost never wants as part of its brand.

This is why the “the Tigers could still move Skubal” chatter always felt like a fan fiction crossover episode for Seattle. Detroit’s asking price is reportedly massive, because it should be. But even if the Mariners could craft an offer that didn’t make you physically ill, the money side is where the whole thing falls apart.

So, if you felt a little whiplash the last time Skubal-to-Seattle floated across your feed, your brain was just protecting you. The Mariners can admire Skubal the way you admire a supercar in a showroom window: beautiful, powerful, absolutely not leaving with you today — and definitely not with that monthly payment.