Somebody is going to make history in Mariners vs. Tigers ALDS Game 5

Something has to give in Game 5 of the American League Division Series, and not just in the obvious way. The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers can't both advance to face the Toronto Blue Jays in the Championship Series. Only Thunderdome rules apply: two teams enter, one leaves.

Yet inasmuch as there is such a thing as an ordinary do-or-die game in the MLB playoffs, this one isn't that. The Mariners are trying to do something that has never been done against the Tigers, and the Tigers are trying to do the same against the Mariners.

The Mariners face long odds against Tarik Skubal

Starting with the Mariners, they have already beaten the odds by winning all three games in which they have squared off against Tarik Skubal this year. He's the 2024 AL Cy Young Award winner and the presumptive winner again in 2025. Being hard to beat comes with the territory for guys like that.

The Mariners will nonetheless try to go 4-for-4 on Friday night at T-Mobile Park, which brings us to this note from MLB.com's Daniel Kramer:

"No team has ever defeated the Tigers four times in a single season in a game started by Skubal over his six-year career, and the Mariners will have to become the first to advance to the AL Championship Series, where the Blue Jays await after defeating the Yankees in the ALDS."

Daniel Kramer

That's the assignment, and the Mariners have demonstrated that they understand it. Whether they can ace it again will come down to execution, both on their part and on Skubal's.

The Mariners have fared better than most against Skubal's secondary pitches, getting to his changeup, slider and curveball for a total run value of plus-four. That seemed to get in his head in Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday, when he favored his four-seamer and sinker and got burned by it.

Whether Skubal will adjust in Game 5 may depend as much on the Mariners as on the ace lefty's game plan. A heavier diet of secondaries would test the discipline of Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and company. Play Skubal's game, and he likely wins. Make him play theirs by forcing him into the strike zone, and all bets are off.

The Tigers have to beat the Mariners in a way that no team ever has

As for Detroit, awaiting them at T-Mobile Park for first pitch at 5:08 p.m. PT on Friday is sure to be a capacity crowd of more than 40,000 Mariners fans. As we covered yesterday, the team has been nearly impossible to beat when it has that kind of backing in a home game.

There's also the fact that the Mariners have never been beaten in a do-or-die game. Counting the tiebreaker for the AL West title in 1995, they're 3-0:

• 1995 AL West Tiebreaker: Mariners 9, Angels 1
• 1995 ALDS Game 5: Mariners 6, Yankees 5 (11 innings)
• 2001 ALDS Game 5: Mariners 3, Guardians 1

If ever there was a sign that the Tigers are up for adding an L to this record, the Mariners were 4-0 in playoff clinch games before the Tigers dropped nine unanswered runs on them in Game 4 in Detroit on Wednesday. "Take that, history!" was not actually said, but was very much implied.

The thing with baseball is that anything can happen, which often means that games don't go according to script. Just ask the Philadelphia Phillies, who didn't imagine losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, much less like that.

One way or another, though, Game 5 of the ALDS is going to deliver something none of us have ever seen before. Not that anyone needs to be told as much, but you're not going to want to miss it.