Tarik Skubal made a mistake that Mariners' Logan Gilbert must avoid in ALDS Game 3

In the Mariners' win over the Tigers in game two of the ALDS, Detroit ace Tarik Skubal may have made a game-changing mistake.

Skubal threw his changeup only 21.6 percent of the time. He threw his changeup 23 percent of the time against right-handed hitters and 13 percent of the time against left-handed hitters. That's significantly lower than the amount of changeups Skubal was throwing in the regular season.

In the regular season, his changeup accounted for 31.4 percent of the pitches he threw. In fact, he threw it more than any other pitch this season. He was right to do so, as it was perhaps the best pitch in the league in holding batters to a .154 average and racking up a plus-25 run value.

Logan Gilbert must not follow Tarik Skubal's example of abandoning his best pitch

Why would Skubal go away from his best pitch in the biggest game of the season? It may have had something to do with the Mariners hitting him well in their first two games against him. Perhaps he wanted to try something new, hence why he decided to go with a fastball-heavy approach yesterday.

Either, when Logan Gilbert takes the mound for Game 3 in Detroit on Tuesday, he should learn a lesson from Skubal, and not go away from his best pitch.

For Gilbert, that's his splitter. A big reason why he was able to post a 2.52 ERA over his last seven starts of the regular season was his increased use of the splitter, which has emerged as the best pitch in his repertoire.

With Gilbert taking the mound in what is essentially a must-win game, he can't afford to make any changes that could hinder him against a dangerous Tigers lineup. Gilbert needs to ride the pitch that has helped him have success down the stretch. It would be a costly gamble to try something new in a playoff game, especially a playoff game as crucial as tomorrows. If the Mariners lose, they'd fall down 2-1, and staring down a potential Bryce Miller start in Game 3. That could be a potential disaster.

Gilbert surely understands what's at stake here. He can't afford to screw it up.