Scuffling Mariners retain one clear advantage over Astros in tight AL West race

Most Seattle Mariners fans painfully remember last season, when a 44-31 record and 10.0-game lead in the AL West ultimately meant nothing. That advantage on June 18 was gradually whittled away and they eventually missed out on a playoff spot for the 22nd time in 23 seasons.

As a result of this, many in Seattle refused to get too carried away this year even as the Mariners won nine consecutive series and again sat at the top of the AL West. Since then they've gone 10-14, allowing their division rivals in Houston to sneak back into the division race and hold a 0.5 game lead ahead of Thursday's action.

As per FanGraphs, the Astros currently have a 48.5 percent probability to win the AL West, whereas the Mariners are at 43.2 percent. While we appreciate these odds will continue to change daily with more than 100 games remaining in the 2025 season, they still allude to the reality that the M's are in for a tight battle as they attempt to win their first division title since way back in 2001.

Mariners have a clear edge in at least one area

With all this in mind, there is at least one clear advantage which can help the Mariners in their quest to win the AL West and return to the playoffs. And it comes down to injuries, which we appreciate might surprise some M's fans initially.

Up until recently, it seemed as if the Mariners were even more jinxed than usual, with an injury list which included the likes of Logan Gilbert, Matt Brash, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Víctor Robles. Add in Luke Raley, Gregory Santos, Ryan Bliss and Trent Thornton, and this made it even more impressive that the M's managed to stay competitive.

Of late, however, the sporting gods seem to have decided to stop having quite as much of a laugh at the Mariners' expense. Brash and Kirby have returned, with the former boosting a stellar 0.00 ERA in 10 outings and the latter finally looking more like his old self in his third start against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. (Yes, Kirby's outing was ended after a nasty line drive into his face. But as per his badass response, all indications are that he's going to be okay.)

Further good news on the injury front includes a report from Daniel Kramer of MLB.com on what might have been Gilbert's final rehab start on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Miller has already been activated from the Injured List and Raley is beginning a rehab assignment of his own this week.

Astros headed in the opposite direction to the Mariners

The Astros, on the other hand, appear to have taken over the Mariners' mantle as the most injury -prone team in the AL West and possibly the AL as a whole. Their injury report is shocking and only seemingly getting worse with each passing week.

Ronel Blanco is the Astros' latest pitcher to have elbow trouble, with the rotation mainstay needing to undergo Tommy John surgery. He won't be back until some point next season. The pitching in Houston has been collectively outstanding so far in 2025, but with six arms now on the Injured List, it remains to be seen if they can hold up.

On top of everything else, the Astros have only just found out that Yordan Alvarez has a fracture in his right hand, after being out since early May. His return has now been pushed back and even though the three-time All-Star hasn't been anywhere near the same level as previous seasons, his continued absence still doesn't help the team.

Ultimately, how the race for the AL West plays out is anyone's guess, although you figure an Astros team with the experience of winning seven of the last eight division titles puts them in good stead. However, if the Mariners are ever going to finally finish above them, then you figure this is the season to do it, with their main rivals crippled by injuries, while they continue to get healthier.

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