Randy Arozarena's likely Mariners exit will open a door to an Aaron Judge fantasy

Two weeks have passed since Randy Arozarena and Seattle Mariners fans said goodbye to each other. He's going to be missed, but don't make the mistake of thinking that the story of his Seattle legacy is finished. There may yet be an Aaron Judge component to it.

We'll be stuck waiting for contract predictions until after MLB wraps up the postseason, but it's a safe guess that Arozarena is going to get pegged for a huge deal in free agency. He's a former AL Rookie of the Year and three-time All-Star who just had the best season of his career, going off for a 148 OPS+ and 5.7 rWAR in 2026.

What's for sure is that the Mariners are going to make Arozarena a qualifying offer. It is reportedly set to be valued at $23.15 million, potentially $100 million less than Arozarena can command on the open market. Assuming he does reject it, the Mariners would then be set to gain a 2027 draft pick once the 31-year-old signs elsewhere.

With our hat tipped to Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors, here's how the scenarios break down:

• Arozarena signs for over $50M: compensatory pick after the first round
• Arozarena signs for under $50M: compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round

This is the breakdown because the Mariners are a revenue-sharing recipient, putting them in the best possible position to recoup value in the draft upon losing a marquee free agent. Especially if Arozarena signs for over $50 million, which is all but a certainty.

Losing Randy Arozarena as a free agent could potentially net the Mariners a top-30 draft pick

There is, of course, the question of whether the qualifying offer system will survive in the next collective bargaining agreement. Yet even if it doesn't, it's sure to remain in play for this winter. By the time the current CBA expires on December 1, qualifying offers will have gone out and been either rejected or accepted. You can't put a genie like that back in the bottle.

As for how high of a pick we might be talking about for the Mariners, compensatory picks have been known to land as high as the 20s. As recently as 2025, Christian Walker's deal with the Houston Astros resulted in the No. 29 pick for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We'll see if the Mariners get this lucky, but it does help their cause that Arozarena is part of a weak free agent class that doesn't feature many sure-fire candidates for the qualifying offer. Because Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta and Luis Arraez are ineligible, it might just be Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Brandon Lowe and Trevor Rogers.

Whatever the case ends up being, there is a rich history of teams turning compensatory draft picks into future stars. Aaron Judge is the most prominent example. The New York Yankees scored the eventual three-time MVP with the No. 32 pick in the 2013 draft, courtesy of Nick Swisher's free-agent deal with the Cleveland Indians. Other notable compensatory picks in the QO era include Jack Flaherty, Will Smith, Cole Ragans, Shane McClanahan and Sal Stewart.

So, what the heck. Go ahead and think big about what the Mariners could gain for Arozarena's departure. There's nothing wrong with a little fantasy, least of all after a year like this one.

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