When it's all said and done, are the Mariners better as they head into 2024 season?

We will be looking at the ways in which our beloved Mariners have changed from ‘23 to ‘24. However, this will not be an overview position by position. If you’re reading this you probably already said your goodbyes to guys like Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez. I don’t need to tell you that they won’t be here and who will probably be playing their positions in 2024.

Rather, this will look at things from a 30,000 foot view. A 54% view if you’ll excuse my sprinkling salt. What about the construction of this team and the staff around them is different this year? Why should even the most “same old Mariners” fan have a piece of that hope springs eternal nonsense going into 2024? One fan takes a stab at answering.

The Mariners core identity hasn't changed... and that's good

The 2023 Seattle Mariners were dominant at one thing and one thing only. That thing is pitching. The Mariners ERA of 3.74 was the best in the American League last year. That’s miles above the league average of 4.28, coincidentally the league champion Texas Rangers had the exact same ERA of 4.28. We walked very few men with another AL-leading 2.6 BB/9 clip. Starting pitching was especially dominant, a 5 man rotation that has thankfully not been changed going into this season.

It’s easy to forget however that there was a time last year when Woo and Miller weren’t on this squad. In fact, 8 men other than the current 5 started a total of 23 games last year. It cannot be understated how important it will be to have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, and Woo for a full season if they are able to stay relatively healthy.

As good as our pitching was last year, we are primed to see something even more spectacular unfold at T-Mobile Park. Refusing to trade from the existing rotation reinforces that the core value of the 2024 Seattle Mariners is to outpitch every other team in the league.

A great change-up is almost imperceptible 

Like Jamie Moyer clenching up his toes inside his cleats, some changes are harder to see than others, but no less effective.  It may seem as though the Mariners have simply attempted to replace in the aggregate what they have lost from last year's squad. Geno, Teo and “The Man from Waukesha” were all great power hitters who drove in a ton of runs last year, 238 to be exact.

What’s just as important is what isn’t replicated in the numbers of the folks doing the replacing. These three players accounted for 557 strikeouts last year. For reference, Ichiro struck out 792 times across his 11+ seasons as a Mariner.

The aggregate of replacements this year (Garver, Raley, Haniger & Polanco) totaled 363 strikeouts last year. Raley was the worst offender with 128, but his platooning this year should limit exposure to tough lefties anyway and I’d bet that total shrinks for him in ‘24. A conscious effort has been made to eliminate excessive strikeouts from this lineup as it was put back together after the key departures. 

Outside help to improve inside players

There was no Shohei push. Even though one of them practically begged to come here, there was no Boras 4 signing. The most impactful signing the Mariners made in my humble opinion wasn’t even a player, but rather a coach. The Brant Brown of it all will be largely overlooked. That is unless what happened in Miami last year repeats itself in Seattle.

If you’re unfamiliar with Brown he’s a new hitting coach that was in the Dodgers organization and then the Marlins last year.  There’s a great article in the Miami Herald by Jordan McPherson from last September that does a wonderful job of illustrating Brown’s approach to offense and how it manifested in the Marlin stat lines. Jazz Chisholm’s shirt might have summed it up best: “Coach Says Color Inside The Lines”.

It can’t truly be as simple as don’t swing at bad pitches right? However he did it, Brown’s approach resulted in a .30 point team batting average jump and a 2.9% drop in strikeout rate. The Marlins went from sixth worst to sixth best in MLB at BA on pitches in the strike zone. The most interesting stat in the article shows a significant decline in games where Miami scored 1 or fewer runs. There were 38 in 2022 and only 24 in 2023 (with 25 left to play). Didn’t we just talk about this? Be a Brant Brown fan. 

Ok so like… are the Mariners better this year or not?

For every statement this off-season about how Mariner brass has refused to spend on big names, there should be an accompanying statement about how sneaky good Dipoto and Hollander have been at, oh let’s call it coloring inside the lines shall we?

Working with what you’ve got and targeting one aspect of this offense to improve that raises the floor. It almost feels like low-hanging fruit but striking out significantly less is just an obvious way to suck less severely. When you’ve got the best pitching in the league that only stands to improve from last year, that one way to stop sucking might just result in a double-digit win total gain year over year.

Brant Brown’s approach alone seemingly made the Marlins competitive in 14 more games, and that was with no roster construction focus on K rate. When you look at this Mariner team position by position it’s difficult to say that they’ll be significantly better or worse than last year offensively. It’s only when you look at the intention behind the overall roster and approach that a vision starts to emerge.

That vision is what will lead to more consistent offense one through nine for Scott Servais and Co. I nearly threw up in my mouth when I heard that Seattle had removed itself from the race for Shohei. All was lost and the sky was falling in the emerald city. Until I looked up and it wasn’t.

It’s far from obvious but this Mariner fan believes that there has been marked improvement and reason for optimism. Lots of love, and Go Mariners.