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What Does the 2024 Mariners Opening Day Lineup Look Like So Far?
After a few big moves to the Mariners lineup this offseason, who are the names we should expect to take the field on March 28th?
After a slow start that saw the Mariners shed more players than they received, things finally started to open at the end of December for Seattle as they signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24 million contract. They followed this up with two major trades in January: handing Robbie Ray to the Giants in exchange for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani and trading Jose Caballero to the Rays to receive Luke Raley. How might all of these new faces slot into the existing team?
Mariners Starting Rotation
1. Luis Castillo
2. George Kirby
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo
Although there was quite a bit of discussion surrounding the futures of 2023 rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, it seems unlikely that they'll get traded now, especially with years of team control left. If they both stay onboard heading into next season, they'll likely maintain their spots in the starting rotation over Anthony DeSclafani.
DeSclafani had a career year in 2021. After signing with the Giants on a one-year, $6 million contract he pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 167 ⅔ innings, making 31 starts and pitching two shutouts. 2021 was a weird year that saw the Giants unexpectedly winning 107 games and failing to come close to that level of success in the two years since, and DeSclafani has followed a similar path. After his 2021 campaign, he's pitched a total of just 118 ⅔ innings with a 5.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, inferior numbers to both Woo and Miller.
To make matters worse, he's still on the last year of a relatively expensive three-year, $36 million contract, making him the third most expensive player on the roster. The Mariners might do with him what the Braves did with Marco Gonzales, which is to trade him soon after picking him up. If they're forced to keep him, it'd be surprising to see him above the fourth spot in the rotation, if he's in it at all.
The Mariners are known for their excellent pitching development, especially in recent years, so there might be a way to rediscover what's left of 2021 DeSclafani but he's currently sitting below Emerson Hancock on the depth chart.
Mariners Infield
Catcher - Cal Raleigh
This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone and with Tom Murphy departing for the Giants and Mitch Garver intended to be played primarily as a DH, Raleigh's spot on the roster should be secured for at least the next few years. He's under team control until 2028 and while there are still doubts as to whether he'll stick around or if the team will try to trade him before then, fans won't have to worry about that for the near future.
Designated Hitter - Mitch Garver
One of the newest bats to join the Mariners, Garver is coming off of a year that saw him slash .270/.370/.500 over 344 plate appearances. A major contributor to the Rangers' first World Series win in franchise history, Garver's acquisition is reminscient of the team's signing of Teoscar Hernandez. Both are coming in with similar hitting prowess although Garver will be spending significantly less time in the field. Fingers crossed that his huge strides against fastballs and sliders will persist throughout his time with the Mariners.
First Base - Ty France
Love him or hate him, France isn't too far removed from his stellar 2021 and 2022 seasons where he accumulated 4.4 and 3.1 rWAR respectively. 2023 saw him post below-average offensive production for the first time since his rookie 2019 season and he struggled immensely against fastballs and sliders. He's spending his offseason hanging out with J.P. Crawford at Driveline so hopefully, we'll see him return to form and post a 120 OPS+ like he's averaged with the Mariners over the past four years. If he starts to slack, Luke Raley may be slotted in to take his place.
Second Base - Josh Rojas
After a rough start to last season with the Diamondbacks, Rojas seemed to figure it out and improved his OPS by .132 after leaving Arizona. He split time at second base with Jose Caballero but was the better bat, posting a 102 OPS+ to Caballero's 90. Rojas isn't going to be winning a Silver Slugger any time soon but he seems to fit in well in Seattle based on the 134 plate appearances he had.
Third Base - Luis Urias
As of the writing of this article, this is probably the biggest hole in the team's lineup. Urias struggled immensely in 2023, coming off of injury and slashing .194/.337/.299 over 177 plate appearances with the Brewers and the Red Sox, culminating in an rWAR of -0.2. Eugenio Suarez didn't have a great year either but if the Mariners make one more move, upgrading the hot corner would go a long way.
Shortstop - J.P. Crawford
Perhaps the most underrated player in major league baseball, few outside of the PNW were discussing Crawford's stunning season. Aside from slashing a career-best .266/.380/.438 for an OPS+ of 131, he also led the American League in base-on-balls with 94. With 5.1 rWAR, he was just barely behind Julio Rodriguez for the metric and will look to continue his success into 2024.
Mariners Outfield
Left Field - Luke Raley
A new arrival from the Rays, Raley had an eventful first full season in Tampa. Posting a .824 OPS over 406 plate appearances, his .490 slugging percentage will add some much-needed thump to Seattle's lineup. Excelling against offspeed pitches and landing in the top quartile for average exit velocity and barrel rate, Raley is a welcome upgrade over Dominic Canzone and Sam Haggerty.
Center Field - Julio Rodriguez
It's Julio, what more needs to be said? He came in fourth in MVP voting this year, will we see him finally seize the crown in 2024? If things continue as they are, we just might.
Right Field - Mitch Haniger
After signing a three-year, $45 million contract with the Giants in 2023, Haniger struggled in the first few months of the season before hitting the 60-day injured list thanks to a fractured right forearm from a Jack Flaherty fastball. He returned to action in late August but it was too late to save his season where he slashed .209/.266/.365 and posted -0.3 rWAR. Over his five years in Seattle, he averaged an OPS+ of 126 and with the offseason to recover and heal from his injury, it should be reasonable to expect a return to form.