The path to October is a slim one for the Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have come a long way since sitting comfortably atop the AL West. With the Rangers suffering from World Series fatigue, the Angels and Athletics continuing their race to the bottom, and the Astros suffering from disastrous pitching injuries, it seemed like the best time to seize the division crown for the first time in 23 years.

Even after being one of the most active teams at the trade deadline, the roster has fallen disastrously short, culminating in a 5.5-game gap behind Houston and the termination of their long-time manager, Scott Servais. With under 40 games left to play, can the Mariners still hobble into the postseason?

According to FanGraphs, things aren't looking great. They're projecting the Mariners to end with roughly 82 wins, six fewer than Houston's projected total of 88 and clearly short of the Orioles, Twins, and Royals who will likely seize the final three Wild Card spots. In fact, it seems like Seattle's only path to the playoffs would be through the division. FanGraphs estimates that they have an 8.4% chance to win the division and just a 3.1% to clinch a wild card spot, combining for a total 11.5% probability to reach October.

To make matters worse, the strength of the upcoming schedule is a little daunting. While there are a few seemingly easy series against the Angels and Rangers, they also have the following games coming down the stretch:

• Three-game series against the Giants (65-64)
• Three-game series against the Rays (65-64)
• Two-game series against the Padres (72-57)
• Three-game series against the Yankees (75-53)
• Three-game series against the Astros (69-58)

That's 14 games against solid competitors. Furthermore, they have seven games against the Athletics who are one of the hottest teams in the second half, going 17-12 thus far. The Cardinals, Rangers, and Angels have similar lackluster records after the All-Star break but after rough showings against the Pirates and Tigers, Seattle has never seemed more beatable.

Outside of the schedule, the numbers don't look great either. The team's OPS in the second half thus far is .660, 26th in MLB. Even with Julio Rodríguez back in the lineup and J.P. Crawford on the rapid road to recovery, the new faces have dragged the rest of the team down. Yimi García has thrown just nine innings but has posted an ERA of 6.00 and WHIP of 1.22 over that span. Justin Turner has hit at a .565 OPS since joining the team and although Randy Arozarena has a respectable .714 OPS as a Mariner, he's cooled off immensely since his first few weeks on the squad. The most exciting fresh bat might actually be Leo Rivas, a rookie shortstop who has managed to put up a .781 OPS over the past two weeks.

With the appointment of Dan Wilson as the team's new field manager as well as the termination of hitting coach Jarret DeHart, it seems like the front office has already phoned it in. While it's a painful admission, the most accurate assessment seems to be that the Mariners will have to wait for 2025 to repeat their 2022 run.