Tale of the Tape Breakdown: Playoff Contenders, Mariners vs Guardians

Mariners vs Guardians: Cleveland's Offseason Summary

Heading into the offseason, the Guardians were able to have a successful season, but had their most glaring weakness exposed in October. With the second-lowest team home run total and zero players getting to the 30-homer mark, they simply couldn't keep up in a 5 game series with the New York Yankees.

There were only two moves made this offseason in Cleveland, but they were big ones. The Guardians signed 1B/DH Josh Bell, as well as former Mariner catcher Mike Zunino. Josh Bell is a solid power bat, but is an excellent switch hitter, averaging 131 OPS+ in his past three full seasons (82 OPS+ in the 2020 Covid season). Bell is exactly the kind of player that I had as a target for the Mariners in free agency. His playoff experience, his versatility, and his ability to take some pressure off of Ty France at 1st base would have been huge. 

The signing of Mike Zunino could also be an extremely underrated one. In 2021, Zunino smacked 33 home runs in 109 games for the 100-win Tampa Bay Rays. Last season, Zunino only played in a handful of games before having season-ending surgery. I was surprised to see Zunino leave Florida, but Cleveland is a fantastic landing spot for him to bounce back.

It's possible Cleveland will see a sizable jump in power to their offense. This could be really bad news for not just teams in the AL Central, but the entire American League.

Why the Guardians are a threat

To win in the regular season, you need depth. To win in October, you need your stars to show up. I think Cleveland has the ingredients to do both.

The Cleveland offense carried 5 hitters that had an OPS+ over 120 in 2022, and have now added Bell and Zunino. If those guys mesh and produce, Cleveland will have six really good hitters surrounding their superstar in Jose Ramirez. From a pitching perspective, I expect Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie to continue to be stars, while the bullpen should still be really good, even with some reasonable regressions.

Depth on offense, two great starters to pair with an elite bullpen. The Guardians may have struggled against the Seattle Mariners last season record-wise, but most of those games were really competitive.

So… The Guardians or the Mariners?

While those games were close, I can't help but think about how the Mariners went 6-1 vs Cleveland. Time and time again, the Mariners looked a little deeper. On offense, Julio Rodriguez has the ability to match Jose Ramirez, while the depth of Ty France, Geno Suarez, Teo Hernandez and Cal Raleigh is a slight edge for me over Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez. Shane Bieber’s best may be better than anything Seattle has, but the potential of the Mariners having four #1 quality starters is something Cleveland can’t match in a 5 or 7 game series, even if their bullpen is slightly better than the Mariners. 

With the Guardians expected to run away with the Central, I can't help but wonder how aggressive they'll be at the trade deadline. With Shane Bieber's time and eventual contract demand getting closer to the day, and Cleveland's budget limitations, are they willing to strike big for a World Series chance this season? We'll see who is on the market, but if a certain team in Anaheim is struggling and the greatest player of our generation is made available…look out for Cleveland.

While that hypothetical probably changes the balance of power in baseball, let's stick with what the Guardians are right now.

The additions of Bell and Zunino closed the gap, but the Mariners still hold a slight edge. 

Tale of the Tape Winner: Seattle Mariners