Tale of the Tape Breakdown: Playoff Contenders, Mariners vs Blue Jays

Mariners v Blue Jays: Offseason Summary

After a disappointing season in 2022, Toronto had quite a busy off-season. It kicked off with their big trade with the Seattle Mariners, sending all-star OF Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners in exchange for relief pitcher Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko. This was a weird trade, as Seattle was getting a legitimate cleanup hitter in a contract year, while the Blue Jays appeared willing to part with some offense to help with their relief pitching.

To replace the production they lost from the Hernandez trade, the Jays made three moves. First, they signed veteran CF Kevin Kiermaier to a 1 year deal. Light on the bat, but strong with the defense and leadership, Kiermaier is a nice depth move.

Their second move was a stunning trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Toronto sent OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr and prized catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to Arizona in exchange for OF/C Daulton Varsho. This is a massive trade, as Varsho was really good last year, but was a heavy price to pay. Varsho is 3 years younger than Gurriel Jr, so it's reasonable to think he'll be a better player going forward, but the Moreno piece could be massive. 

The final offensive mood was a stinger for me and many Mariners fans, as the Jays were able to sign 1B/DH Brandon Belt on a 1 year deal. When healthy, Belt crushed right-handed pitching and brings championship experience to a team that needs it.

To complete their hectic off-season, the Blue Jays brought in starting pitcher Chris Bassitt away from the New York Mets. With Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi being absolutely horrendous in 2022, the rotation desperately needed stability.

Out were Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, in are Bassitt, Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier.

Why the Blue Jays are a threat

There's a reason why so many pundits thought Toronto was going to win the AL East in 2022. This roster is loaded with talent and potential. Stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr, George Springer, and Bo Bichette get all the credit, but there's so much more. The offense obviously added in the offseason, but also return Matt Chapman, Alejandro Kirk, and Whit Merrifield Jr.

This is a top 5-6 offense in all of baseball and essentially carried their pitching to 92 wins. It doesn't get talked about a lot, but there were rumors that Toronto was extremely close to a deal to acquire Cleveland's star hitter Jose Ramirez before J-Ram and Cleveland agreed on an extension. I can't even imagine that offense with a hall of fame level player in Ramirez joining them. 

The pitching was not all bad, as Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had excellent years for Toronto. Adding a really good #3 starter in Chris Bassitt should do wonders for the rotation. A pitcher like Jose Berrios is still young and extremely talented. If Toronto can figure out what went wrong and get the guy that has averaged close to a 120 ERA+ the previous three seasons, then we're talking about a top 5-6 rotation in the American League to go with that incredible offense.

As the Mariners and the world saw in the Wild Card Series, the Blue Jays bullpen was horrendous. While Erik Swanson throwing as he did in 2022 won't make their pen great, they just need to be average with the way their offense throws runs up on the board.

So… The Jays or the Mariners?

The Blue Jays and Mariners are among the top up and coming teams in all of baseball. They do it in different ways, but it's clear we will see these two battle it out in many more playoff series. Considering all the talent, how do these two stack up heading into 2023?

Offense: The Blue Jays remain the leader in this category, but I believe the gap has shrunk. The addition of Teoscar Hernandez and his 127 OPS+ lengthens the lineup for Seattle that it doesn't feel so inferior to Toronto. While the duo of Guerrero and Bichette is better than any duo you'd like to add to Julio, the gap has closed 

Pitching: The acquisitions of Chris Bassitt and Erik Swanson helped two of the weakest area for Toronto, but they continue to pale in comparison to what Seattle has. We saw the difference between Luis Castillo and Alek Manoah in October, and the quality of depth in the rotation and bullpen in Seattle just overwhelms anything Toronto can throw at it.

This is a close call, but with a strong farm system for each team, it's possible we see one or both of these teams make some big moves at the trade deadline. Both teams need to usurp their dominant rivals (Yankees and Astros), and will be highly active and motivated if they're in a buyers position come July. 

Given the info that we have now, and what we saw last season in the Wild Card Series, I like the Mariners to go farther than Toronto in 2023. The Jays may end up with a better record in the regular season, but the pitching advantage Seattle has in a 3, 5, or 7 game series is too much for Toronto.

Tale of the Tape Winner: Seattle Mariners