Despite early struggles, Julio Rodriguez didn't come back too early for the Mariners

On July 23rd, Julio Rodríguez was placed on the 10-day IL with a right high ankle sprain after trying to make a play on a fly ball. After a little more than two weeks, he returned to the lineup as a designated hitter on August 11th against the Mets. Things didn't go quite as well as he probably hoped.

In five at-bats, Julio Rodriguez struck out five times. Three of his strikeouts came against four-seam fastballs and only got into one hitter's count. Even while the rest of his team was lighting up the Mets pitching staff, Julio looked simply outmatched.

It's been a clear down year for the star outfielder but even with his diminished output, he's still sitting at a .679 OPS and 99 OPS+, right around league-average. His quality of contact numbers and bat speed metrics are all excellent but his plate discipline is worse than ever, caused by chase, whiff, strikeout, and walk rates all landing in the bottom quartile.

The performance in his first game back didn't help the situation but there's really more than meets the eye with Julio's performance this year. Despite all of his struggles, his expected stats are actually in line with his career averages.

What does this mean? Well expected stats are based more on intrinsic batted ball properties like exit velocity, launch angle, and even sprint speed on certain occasions. It makes sense that his numbers are consistent with his past two All-Star seasons since he's still hitting the ball hard and is still pretty quick. The biggest discrepancy is between his xSLG of .452 and his actual SLG of .368, a meaningful difference. Of course expected stats, like all numbers in baseball, are imperfect and don't tell the whole story but it's an indicator that he might not be as rough as some might think.

Julio Rodriguez is back for the Mariners

So what's the verdict? In my humble opinion, I don't think it was too early to bring him back. First of all, there's a good chance he simply wanted to be a part of the first Sunday Night Baseball game in Seattle in 20 years. Second of all, with his fielding abilities still limited, he'll either have to split time with Mitch Garver or take over his plate appearances entirely, both of which would still benefit the offensive output from the designated hitter position.

Finally, I think Julio will be back sooner rather than later. Over 53 plate appearances in July, he was slashing .375/.434/.688 for a cumulative 1.122 OPS. Additionally, he's always lived and died by the hack, striking out at league-high clips in order to give himself the greatest opportunity to put the ball in play for extra bases. The key to success is allowing him to regain his footing, rediscover his confidence, and get back on the tear he started last month. There isn't much season left and with the divisional race as tight as ever, a swift road to recovery for J-Rod could be make or break for the Mariners.