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Analyzing the Mariners 2023 ZiPS Projections from Fangraphs and Dan Szymborski
2023 Mariners ZiPS Projections - The Good
It starts, as many things likely will in Seattle for the next decade, with Julio Rodriguez. ZiPS has Julio doing something quite similar to 2022, albeit with a drop in his slash line. 28 HR, 27 SB, and a .270/.337/.484 line for a 5.0 fWAR. He had a 5.3 fWAR last year, and STEAMER actually projects him for a 5.9. With how ZiPS is setup, I can see where the slightly lower numbers come into play.
Dylan Moore surprises me as well. 10 HR and 20 SB, on just 285 ABs. This is sort of what we have been expecting and hoping from from Moore since he's been in Seattle. If he can hit .218/.329/.386 as well, I think thats a pretty nice season to have from a UTIL guy who is going to see his ABs split between OF fill-in and possible platoon work at 2B.
I think we need to throw Jarred Kelenic in here as well. .223/.290/.419 and a K rate of 25.4% would be quite the season for the 23-year-old. Especially when you throw in that he would have 22 HR and 11 SB. I'll take that right now for him if you could guarantee it. The OBP needs some work, but it's a step in the right direction.
Also, holy Cade Marlowe. I'm a big fan, and he's shown a potential for a nice power/speed combo. IF (this is an IF, don't expect anywhere near this) he plays a nearly full season, a projection of 15 HR, 16 SB, and a line of .217/.285/.365 gets thrown his way. Impressive, but you can see the struggles still there.
On the pitching side, Luis Castillo comes in with a 2.99 ERA, misses a couple of starts, and strikes out nearly a hitter per inning. He leads the way with a 4.2 WAR, and further establises his hold on the top spot in the rotation.
Really, there isn't a lot of negative in the rotation. Kirby and Ray both have 2.5 fWAR, with a 3.56 and 3.82 ERA, respectively. Glibert has a 3.0 fWAR and a 3.66 ERA while leading the team in innings pitched at 174.2. Munoz, Castillo, Sewald, Brash, Festa, Sadler, Gott, Campbell, and Speier would all have ERAs under 4. Yeah, I'll take that all day.
The surprise here? Bryce Miller. ZiPS loves him. 119.2 IP, 3.84 ERA, Nearly a K per inning, and an fWAR of 1.8. If he comes up and does that as the number 5, things are going to be a lot of fun in Seattle this year.