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Analyzing the Mariners 2023 ZiPS Projections from Fangraphs and Dan Szymborski
Every year, I plan out and make my way through the offseason based off of the different milestones that offseason baseball holds. Free Agency, International draft, prospect projections, fantasy baseball, and now writing about prospects as well. Well, that and the Ravens. One of the things I truly enjoy waiting for each season is the ZiPS projections from Dan Szymborski over at Fangraphs.
Shoot, even MLB.com has a section on their site dedicated to explaining what exactly they are. So, instead of me fumbling my way through it, I'll leave that up to them.
"ZiPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph's Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections."
Previous seasons, applying heavier weight to recent seasons, amongst other things, and you end up with a fun and useful projection system. It shouldn't need to be said, but they are just that. Projections. It's fun to look at them, and anyone that spends the time to come up with them, and a legitimate and well thought out system to boot, gets a round of applause from me.
And here it is with the relievers. pic.twitter.com/pmbru6O5jf
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 17, 2023
There is a big part of this that you need to look at before getting too far into it. He projects for a lot of people in the system based on how they would do in the majors. He has a whole primer on it that you can check out. For now, try and focus on the guys who we know/expect to make it to the bigs.
With that being said, let's take a fan-heavy, completely biased, opinionated, and mildly irrational dive into it and see what Dan Z came up with, where he is right, where he is wrong, and the general thought for the Mariners heading into 2023.
2023 Mariners ZiPS Projections - The Good
It starts, as many things likely will in Seattle for the next decade, with Julio Rodriguez. ZiPS has Julio doing something quite similar to 2022, albeit with a drop in his slash line. 28 HR, 27 SB, and a .270/.337/.484 line for a 5.0 fWAR. He had a 5.3 fWAR last year, and STEAMER actually projects him for a 5.9. With how ZiPS is setup, I can see where the slightly lower numbers come into play.
Dylan Moore surprises me as well. 10 HR and 20 SB, on just 285 ABs. This is sort of what we have been expecting and hoping from from Moore since he's been in Seattle. If he can hit .218/.329/.386 as well, I think thats a pretty nice season to have from a UTIL guy who is going to see his ABs split between OF fill-in and possible platoon work at 2B.
I think we need to throw Jarred Kelenic in here as well. .223/.290/.419 and a K rate of 25.4% would be quite the season for the 23-year-old. Especially when you throw in that he would have 22 HR and 11 SB. I'll take that right now for him if you could guarantee it. The OBP needs some work, but it's a step in the right direction.
Also, holy Cade Marlowe. I'm a big fan, and he's shown a potential for a nice power/speed combo. IF (this is an IF, don't expect anywhere near this) he plays a nearly full season, a projection of 15 HR, 16 SB, and a line of .217/.285/.365 gets thrown his way. Impressive, but you can see the struggles still there.
On the pitching side, Luis Castillo comes in with a 2.99 ERA, misses a couple of starts, and strikes out nearly a hitter per inning. He leads the way with a 4.2 WAR, and further establises his hold on the top spot in the rotation.
Really, there isn't a lot of negative in the rotation. Kirby and Ray both have 2.5 fWAR, with a 3.56 and 3.82 ERA, respectively. Glibert has a 3.0 fWAR and a 3.66 ERA while leading the team in innings pitched at 174.2. Munoz, Castillo, Sewald, Brash, Festa, Sadler, Gott, Campbell, and Speier would all have ERAs under 4. Yeah, I'll take that all day.
The surprise here? Bryce Miller. ZiPS loves him. 119.2 IP, 3.84 ERA, Nearly a K per inning, and an fWAR of 1.8. If he comes up and does that as the number 5, things are going to be a lot of fun in Seattle this year.
2023 Mariners ZiPS Projections - The Bad
Big Dumper at just .222/.285/.449? I take umbrage with that. Or Dolores Umbridge. Whichever floats your boat. I understand why, but I can't help but be hopeful that a healthier Dumper with experience under his belt is going to perform better. Something like... .239/.311/.494. 30 HR. Book it.
I think we see a lot better average from Geno as well. He hit .236 last year after finally getting healthy. ZiPS has that as his 80th percentile, but I think the injury stuff really hurts him here. 80th percentile to me would be closer to the Cincinnati numbers we saw from a healthy Geno. Not last year.
I want to be mad at Ty France hitting in the 270s, but I can't. Not until he shows he can stop getting hit in the wrist. He's a .310 hitter when healthy and a .200 hitter when he isn't. So... .270 is fine I guess.
Penn Murfee surprises me a bit as well. He's the "worst" reliever for the Mariners after having a darn good 2022. Now, a 4.03 in 80 IP with 86 Ks still isn't bad, but i would expect Sadler, Gott, Campbell, or Speier to have worst projections.
2023 Mariners ZiPS Projections - Final Thoughts and Predictions
Let's take a look at what this means overall for the Mariners, in a few different ways. I wanted to tally up their stats, and then list where that would've placed them last year in relation to the rest of the league. For reference, I've also listed their final counting stats from 2022 so we can see a bit of a comparison.
Period | BA(Rank) | OBP(Rank) | SLG(Rank) | HR(Rank) | SB(Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2002 | .230 (28th) | .315 (16th) | .390 (17th) | 197 (9th) | 83 (16th) |
ZiPS 2023 | .239 (17th) | .305 (22nd) | .412 (8th) | 218 (4th) | 118 (4th) |
The team is going to hit better, SLG better, and run better. However, it looks like they are going to get on base less. To get these numbers, I took the main 12 or so guys for the Mariners and calc'd their 2023 stats. It looks like a nice upgrade, but there is still room for improvement.
There is also a fun sheet down lower on his list that shows 80/20 stats. Think a guy is going to be bad? Go for the 20th percentile stats. Think he's gonna dominate? Go with the 80th Percentile.
With the Mariners focus on controlling the zone, I could see the OBP go up a bit. If we are going to get all those other numbers, I think it's a good advancement and a nice step for this team. Considering the fact (as Dan S notes) that Dipoto likes to surprise, it's like that if this team is in fact in contention once more for the playoffs, he's going to make an addition to the team to strengthen their position.
I think we can all agree that if the Mariners can get 85% of the health they got from their starting rotation last year, the M's are going to be in a good position for 2023. It does help to have Flexen and Marco, who ZiPS sees performing admirably for a #5 with a 4.23 and 4.39 ERA, respectively.
All in all, this projects to a tight window team in the high 80s, which is a pretty good spot to be in ZiPS world. As Mariners fans, we should all be fairly happy with this year's predictions/projections.