5 bold predictions for the Mariners for the 2024 season

Mariners Bold Prediction #1: Cal Raleigh leads the team in homers... with 42

Cal Raleigh has shown true pop for the Mariners since getting called up, even if the batting average could use a bit of work. Here's the thought process that goes behind this one. The Mariners have has Tom Murphy in the past while Raleigh was here, but he has been unable to stay healthy. It's caused Big Dumper to have to play ALOT behind the plate.

With Garver and Hunt on the team, maybe this means that Raleigh is able to take some more time off from behind the plate and play some of those games at DH instead, which in turn, will keep him healthier. He played only 15 games at DH last season (14 started, 1 pinch hit). Imagine if that number bumps up to 30-35.

After seasons of 27 HR and 30 HR, could Cal continue his rise in power? His HR rate actually dropped from 6.5% to 5.3% last season compared to 2022. A 6.5% HR rate last season would've give Cal 37 homers, so this really isn't all that bold. If he still gets around 570 PA and bumps that HR rate back in the other direction to around 7.3%... that would be 42 HR for Cal Raleigh.

Mariners Bold Prediction #2: Logan Gilbert is the Ace of the staff

Part of this may just be me being stubborn. I love watching Logan Gilbert pitch, and he's my favorite player on the team. If it helps make sense, we're the same height, and I was a long-haired pitcher with an attitude back in the day... not the mid-30s bald guy that I currently represent.

Anyway, Gilbert shows those flashes of being able to lead a rotation. Think back to the start of 2022. He set the team record for April with a 0.40 ERA through his four starts that month, throwing 22.1 IP, striking out 22, and the lone run coming on a solo homer by Luis Arraez in the second AB of the first game. He didn't give up another run until the bottom of the 6th on a May 1st game against the Marlins when Brian Anderson would take him deep for a solo shot.

His slider was a massive weapon in 2023, and the 4-seamer was a big weapon in 2022. What happens if he is feeling both of them next season? That's the prediction here. That Gilbert finishes with an ERA of right around 3.00, let's call it a 2.96, and leads the team's rotation as their Ace.

Mariners Bold Prediction #3: Ryan Bliss steals over 30 bases... for the Mariners

Many think that Ryan Bliss was the true gem that came over in the Paul Sewald trade, not Canzone or Rojas. He went to Tacoma for the final 47 games of the 2023 campaign and would slash .251/.356/.466. He ended up with 10 HR and 20 SB for the Rainiers, a constant menace on the bases.

Maybe Rojas struggles a bit. Maybe there is just an opening come Late May after an injury, or it's such a good start by Bliss in Tacoma that they have to give him a chance in the bigs.

He grabs it, stealing two bases in his first game. He never lets up, showing a lot of the same stats the Cabby did last year, except with more pop. Bliss finishes the 2024 season with 8 HR and 35 SB for the Mariners, even snagging a couple ROY votes (late ones) with a 2.7 WAR.

It's the steals that shine for Bliss though, as they are able to use him as a pinch runner late and often to take advantage of the speed. It just so happens that the Mariners have a slow hitter who, when healthy, can really rake. Speaking of...

Mariners Bold Prediction #4: Ty France fights for the batting title

I'm still a firm believer in Ty France. It's funny how fast we forget and are willing to dump a player after a bad season. Sure, I could be proven wrong and France could hit .244 without power and be out of the lineup. I don't see it happening though.

France had OPS+ marks of 128, 128, and 125 his first three seasons with the Mariners while hitting .284. the ceiling is higher than that though. France will go through these long stretches where he is clearing .300, and doing so with room to spare.

Maybe it's getting back to where he needs to be at Driveline. Making a change that gets him back into his comfort zone, and possibly off the plate a little bit to avoid the HBP and injury issues that come along with it. Oh, and not having a dirty play at first base where someone looks to intentionally try and injure his elbow would help as well.

France's exit velo climbs to 90 mph, and his hard hit rate jumps to 41%. He sheds a bit of weight, distributing it better to gain a bit of foot speed and gain some comfortability. Ty France is going to hit .314 in 2024, slashing 37 2B and 22 HR, getting back into the good graces of Mariners fans and providing some protection for Julio Rodriguez. He won't be the only one returning to 2021 form, either.

Mariners Bold Prediction #5: Mitch Haniger turns in his second-best season ever

I don't know that I have been this excited about a former player coming back to the Mariners since Griffey came back. That was pure nostalgia there, even though Griffey was definitely at the end of his career since he came back at 39 years old. Mitch Haniger is just 33, and is looking to return to that form he had in Seattle.

2021 wasn't that long ago, and it was the last time that Haniger was healthy. My guy has had a rash of weird injuries and (WARNING - Not for the faint of heart) was the basis for one of the weirdest stats ever seen in the world of baseball. He would hit 39 homers that season while driving in 100 RBI.

Haniger, fully healthy, is able to play passable defense in RF. He's actually alright out there, and knowing that he has Julio next to him, is able to focus on a smaller are to cover. A 0.0 dWAR, or maybe just a bit better, helps his overall WAR numbers. On offense he really shines, playing around 130 games. The Mariners give him plenty of rest days and work on rotating DH spots with he, Garver, and Dumper.

Haniger ends up hitting .266 with 27 HR and posts a 3.4 WAR on the season, his second-best mark of his career and topping that 2021 season. I'd love to finish on a wild note and say he posts his best season ever, but he would need 40 2B, 30+ HR, and to slash like .285/.370/.500 in order to one-up that 2018 season when he finished with a 6.5 WAR, the 17th best mark in team history.

Do you have any bold predictions? Let us know, and as always, go Mariners!