3 moves that could happen after the busy Friday for the Mariners
After a crazy Friday afternoon, involving 2 separate trades, here are the next 3 dominoes that could fall.
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Friday has been a wild day as the Mariners acquired longtime fan favorite, Mitch Haniger, as well as pitcher Anthony Desclafani, sending Robbie Ray to the Giants. It is reported the cash for 2024 is neutral, so the Mariners get a solid pitcher for depth, as well as a right fielder with high upside, but a lot of injury concerns. At the same time that was happening, it was also reported that the Mariners were nearing a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, sending Jose Caballero in exchange for Luke Raley. Many fans thought there could be more to this as this seems like a steal for the Mariners.
The Ray for Haniger deal gets the Mariners out of a lot of money as Ray is due $73 milion over the next 3 years while Haniger ($17M this year with a $15.5M player option next year) and Desclafani ($12M this year) require significantly less long-term financial commitment.
With these moves done, the Mariners can still stand to add another bat. Haniger has struggled to stay healthy, Raley had a fairly high strikeout rate in his first full season, and you are going to ask a lot out of Dominic Canzone. These are a few of the next dominos that could fall after a flurry of moves Friday.
Ty France gets traded
Ty France has been at the center of trade discussions all offseason, and even at the trade deadline. He could fetch the Mariners a solid outfielder (the Mariners would most likely have to add prospects), or maybe even a back-end starter. He is coming off a rough year and shouldn't be guaranteed to be the opening day first baseman. I think a France trade makes even more sense after the supposed trade of acquiring Luke Raley.
If France and prospects can net you an outfielder like Max Kepler or Anthony Santander, I think that is something that you certainly have to entertain. The offensive output would be fairly equal, but it gives you more certainty and possibly even higher upside. You can move Raley to first base and all of the money doesn't really increase all that much. You would have an outfield of Haniger, Julio, Raley, Canzone and still have a lot of money to work with.
Mariners extend their young pitching
This one is perhaps the least exciting for Mariners fans as it doesn't directly improve the 2024 team, but this could be a very significant move. The Mariners have such good young pitcher and looking to build around that strength could put the Mariners ahead for the next few years. Especially considering the numbers some of these pitchers are getting, extending Gilbert or Kirby could benefit the Mariners long term.
I would look to the Spencer Strider as a sort of similar deal. In October of 2022, Strider signed a 6-year, $75 million extension, signing him through his age 29 season. It also includes an option for $22 million for his age 30 season. Kirby is a year older, but a similar deal here could work. Maybe the Mariners can buy out 1 or 2 years and give Kirby some extra cash for doing so. Maybe a 6-year $70 million extension could get it done.
The Mariners have apparently talked to Gilbert about an extension, how far that got, who knows. He has a year less control than Kirby, and is already making decent money in arbitration. You might be able to get another year or two on top, in something like a 5-year $80 million extension would work. It would give Gilbert more cash over the next few years and give the Mariners an extra year of control.
Mariners still trade France for an outfielder, and use the extra money to get an elite bullpen arm
This goes hand in hand with my first point. The Mariners trade Ty France for Max Kepler. When you pair that with the Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger for Robbie Ray trade, the Mariners have surprisingly not taken on any additional salary. As it stands right now, the Mariners payroll is around $121 million, possibly giving them around $19 million to work with. If the lineup looks something like these, there aren't many holes left.
C- Cal Raleigh 1B- Luke Raley 2B- Josh Rojas 3B- Luis Urias SS- JP Crawford LF- Haniger/Canzone CF- Julio RF- Max Kepler DH- Mitch Garver
Sure, you might think they could add a third baseman, but in this market, they are pretty limited. My thoughts are you ride with that team but go out and sign an elite reliever. I really like Robert Stephenson. He was absolutely dominant last year with the Rays, throwing 38 1/3 innings, with a 2.35 ERA, 14.1 K/9 and a crazy 1.9 BB/9. This would give you an elite, high leverage arm to pair with Matt Brash and Andres Munoz. Reynaldo Lopez got a 3-year deal, worth $30 million with Atlanta, and I think it might take something similar, but Stephenson was elite. That only adds about $10 million, giving you an additional $9 million in cap space that they could look to add some pieces (or more likely for John Stanton to pocket).