2023 Tale of the Tape Breakdown: Playoff Contenders, Mariners vs Angels
A few years ago, an article series like this would have seemed like a waste of time. Before 2022, comparing the Seattle Mariners to anyone other than the worst teams in baseball was a waste of time. Now? Now things are different. In part 2 of an 8 part series, I'm going to take a look at the teams that could potentially stand in the Mariners way of not only making the postseason but winning the American League.
Mariners Tale of the Tape: Los Angeles Angels but are actually in Anaheim
Offseason Summary
The Angels had a surprisingly quiet offseason for a team that has and will continue to face questions about its future. The losses of RHP Michael Lorenzon, RHP Archie Bradley, and C Kurt Suzuki are minimal and positions where the Angels can easily upgrade. While the offseason was quiet, that doesn’t mean the Angels didn’t make moves. I hate to say it Mariners fans, but the Angels sneakily got noticeably better.
The Angels made the majority of their moves during the week leading up to Thanksgiving. Their first move was signing former Mariner Tyler Anderson (3 years/$39million) away from the Dodgers, bringing more stability to the Angels rotation. Anderson was absolutely fantastic last season for the Dodgers, going 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA, posting a 163 ERA+ and a 4.3 WAR. While these numbers are complete outliers to his career, getting 80% of this type of production gives the Halos a strong trio of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, and Anderson.
After the quiet signing, the Angels made two trades in a matter of 4 days, acquiring 3rd baseman Gio Urshela from Minnesota and right fielder Hunter Renfroe from Milwaukee. Both moves cost minimal assets while the Angels grabbed two dudes that hit the ball well in 2022. Urshela, who brings positional versatility, had one of his best offensive seasons, posting an OPS+ of 121 while slashing .285/.338/.429, good for a 3.1 WAR. While Renfroe isn’t known for his fielding, he brings much-needed pop to the Angels lineup, hitting 29 homers while posting a 126 OPS+.
After a quiet couple of weeks, the Halos signed Rockies reliever Carlos Estevez to a 2yr/$14mil deal. While even Angels fans feel the price is a little high, Estevez could be a solid addition to a bullpen and rotation that finished 2022 on somewhat of a high note. A few weeks later just before Christmas, the Angels signed all-star utility man Brandon Drury to a 2yr/$17mil deal.
Anyone that has read my articles or paid attention to my social media knows how much I felt Drury was a perfect fit as a utility weapon for the Mariners. He had a fantastic season last year in both Cincinnati as well as San Diego and could have easily become the “Ben Zobrist” that Jerry Dipoto has repeatedly talked about looking for. Instead, he signs with his childhood team and now adds even more versatility, offense, and depth to the Angels.
And literally as I'm writing this, the Angels have just signed former Rangers bullpen arm Matt Moore. Moore had a fantastic season last year, has developed into a strong bullpen lefty that has dominant reverse splits against right handed hitters. Again, just another quiet, but solid move adding talent.
Why the Angels are a threat to the Mariners
The Angels were the April and early May darlings of baseball, sitting at 21-11 and in first place in the AL West, but the rest of the season was a nightmare. They stumbled, rushed to fire their Hall of Fame caliber manager in Joe Madden, let a goon take over the roster, got their butts kicked by a guy the Seattle Mariners couldn’t stand, and fell so hard on their face that their generational talents are either hurt, depressed, or possibly looking at their next team in 2024. All of this shame had their owner on the verge of selling the team.
Fast forward to today and much of that drama has disappeared, and it is oddly quiet. Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout appear to be finally healthy, with Trout captaining Team USA in the WBC. Owner Arte Moreno has decided to keep the team, and has raised the Angels payroll to the highest in team history at $206 million.
They didn’t go out and sign overpriced superstars to help an aging core, but instead went out and got valuable, solid players to complement their stars. The bullpen potentially got a lot better after the Moore signing, and while the rotation was already pretty solid, Anderson as a #3 or #4 starter can make it a top 5 rotation in the AL. They could be a trade deadline arm away from becoming one of the best in baseball.
Too often we’d see games where Trout and Ohtani would each homer, but the Angels still lose by 4-5 runs. Can guys like Urshela, Renfroe and Drury bring enough stability to the lineup to make this team a wildcard contender? I think so.
So… The Angels or the Mariners?
When looking at the AL West in 2023, it's clear that this division has the potential to be one of the best in baseball. The Astros continue to look like World Series favorites. The Mariners, led by Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, and Teoscar Hernandez for full seasons, are ready to make the jump. The A's suck and the Rangers signed some massive names, but don't count out the Angels.
I believe this team has gone out and really raised their floor with some shrewd transactions. Mike Trout being fully healthy can go a long way in determining how far this team can go, and I expect Ohtani to perform at both Cy Young and MVP levels in a contract year. Their season will need 3 things to go right for them to jump the Mariners.
1- Can they play well enough to silence the Ohtani trade rumors?
2- Can the supporting cast lift Trout and Ohtani, rather than sink them?
3- Can Phil Nevin find a way to not screw this up?
I believe that the supporting cast will play well and make this a better team than last year. I do believe that Phil Nevin will once again screw this up and we'll only hear the Ohtani trade rumblings grow louder and louder as the Angels fail to keep up with the Mariners and a stacked AL West.
While they will hang for a bit, expect the Angels to fade and be forced to think about their future at the deadline, rather than playoff baseball.