Only 1 thing can keep Mariners' Cal Raleigh from AL MVP after Aaron Judge injury

The American League MVP race just got a dramatic shakeup, and not in a way that New York Yankees fans are celebrating. Seattle Mariners All-Star catcher Cal Raleigh now finds himself as the frontrunner for the 2025 AL MVP award following the recent injury to Yankees captain Aaron Judge. 

Judge, who had been the betting favorite for much of the season, was placed on the 10-day injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow. He’s expected to return, but only as a designated hitter for the foreseeable future, an unfortunate development that drastically changes the MVP conversation.

Mariners’ Cal Raleigh takes over MVP race after Judge injury

For Raleigh, it’s the opening he needs to seize. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, "Big Dumper" is now the odds-on favorite at -145, leapfrogging Judge, who slipped to +115 amid injury concerns.

The timing couldn’t be more critical. Judge is having yet another monster season with a league-leading .342/.449/.711 slash line, 37 home runs, and 6.7 rWAR, but his temporary removal from the field (and potentially from right field duties altogether) leaves the door open for Raleigh.

Make no mistake, Judge can still mash. If he returns and continues to rake offensively, he’ll absolutely remain in the conversation. But serving as a full-time DH while Raleigh continues to do damage both at the plate and behind it gives the Mariners slugger a distinct advantage, especially in terms of positional value.

This race is now Raleigh’s to lose. Raleigh entered the week with 41 home runs after a two-homer outburst over the weekend and is currently pacing toward 63 long balls by season’s end. Add that to his duties behind the plate, navigating one of the league’s best rotations, and continuing to play strong defense at catcher, you’ve got a recipe for MVP gold.

The only real obstacle now standing in Cal Raleigh’s way…is Cal Raleigh himself.

If he stays consistent, the award should be as good as his. But any prolonged slump, especially with Judge looming in the background ready to swing his way back into the spotlight, could allow doubt to creep back in.

With the Mariners in playoff position and Raleigh’s leadership impossible to overlook, there’s never been a clearer path to AL MVP. It’s a tightrope, and Raleigh will need to keep walking it.