3 things that must happen for Mariners' Cal Raleigh to break AL home run record

Cal Raleigh began the 2025 MLB season with a historic first half. The Seattle Mariners' catcher leads the MLB with 38 home runs, is on pace to become the first catcher to have a nine-WAR season, and just won the Home Run Derby.

However, Raleigh is still looking for history in the second half of the season. He entered the All-Star break on pace for 64 home runs. That would be an American League record, besting Aaron Judge's 62 from 2022.

Here are three things that must happen for Raleigh to break the record and etch his name into the history books.

How Cal Raleigh can make home run history in 2025

1. The home runs have to keep coming in bunches

Raleigh's home runs have come mostly in bunches this year. From April 11th to April 20th, he hit seven home runs over a nine-game stretch. From April 27th to May 2nd, he hit three in four games. From May 12th to May 17th, he hit three in five games. Then, from May 21st until June 6th, he crushed 11 home runs in 16 games. He found another spurt of power from June 17th through June 23rd, when he smashed six dingers in six games. His latest bunch of power came from June 30th through July 11th, when he hit six long balls in ten games.

That makes 36 of Raleigh's 38 home runs which have come amidst power surges. For him to continue on pace with Judge's '22 season and break the AL home run record, he's going to need that to continue. He needs 24 home runs to tie Judge and 25 to set the record. That means Raleigh probably needs at least one more big power surge (like the 11 homers in 16 games), supplemented by three or four smaller bunches of home runs.

2. He needs to keep pulling the ball

Perhaps the biggest reason Raleigh's been able to hit so many home runs this year is because of his elite air-pull ratio. According to Statcast, he leads the league with a 38.1% Pull Air percentage. That's slightly down from the 38.2% he was at a month ago, but it still leads all of baseball.

Not all of Raleigh's home runs have been pulled, but it certainly helps that he's pulling the ball so much. According to Statcast, from 2022-2024, pulled fly balls and line drives represented 16.1 percent of batted balls, but accounted for 66 percent of home runs. Raleigh has mastered pulling the ball in the air, which in turn gives him the best chance at a home run.

3. He needs to stay healthy

This one might seem obvious, but at this point, it's hard to see what is going to stop Raleigh besides an injury. He's been the most dominant hitter in the game for the past two months, and shows no signs of slowing down.

The Mariners do need to be careful, though. The last thing the team needs is an injury to their slugging backstop. Raleigh should get more DH days in the second half, especially with Mitch Garver playing better lately. Rest will have to be prioritized.

If Raleigh stays healthy and keeps producing, there is a good chance he can at least break 60 home runs. Time will tell if he can reach 63 and break Judge's record.