Newly hot Mariners can't screw up chance to pad AL West lead vs. White Sox

Just when the Seattle Mariners couldn't seem to get any colder, they went and redeemed themselves over the weekend. They took a three-game set on the road against the San Diego Padres that was supposed to be tough, and instead hit the "Easy" button and turned it into a three-game sweep.

Please, Mariners, we'd like some more. In fact, we insist on more in light of the circumstances of the next series on the club's 10-game road trip.

It's on to the South Side of Chicago for the Mariners, where they'll play another three-game set against the White Sox. These are the same White Sox who are an American League-worst 14-33 after a historic (in a bad way, of course) 121-loss season in 2024. Surely, it should be another breeze for a Mariners squad that is hot off a triumphant sweep and atop the AL West at 26-19, right?

Yes, it should be. But paragraphs like the one above are basically the long way of saying, "Hmmm...yes, that looks like a trap."

As bad as the White Sox are, the Mariners must not be overconfident as they ride into the South Side

As bad as the Pale Hose are, they're not quite as out-and-out hopeless as they were last season. And least of all on the mound, where Chicago has a 98 ERA+ that isn't far off Seattle's own mark of 100.

In Davis Martin, Bryse Wilson, and Shane Smith, the Mariners will face a trio of starters who have a 3.62 ERA between them for the season. The highlight among the bunch is the 2.05 ERA that Smith has through nine starts, a figure forged primarily through a fastball-changeup combination that has held hitters to averages of .194 and .122, respectively.

For its part, Seattle's offense has cooled considerably since a 13-run outburst on May 2 marked a high point for what looked like one of MLB's elite lineups. The M's have averaged a paltry 3.6 runs per game since then, exposing just how shallow their lineup is while they wait for Victor Robles, Luke Raley, and Ryan Bliss to recover from serious injuries.

Meanwhile, the Mariners just used their best starting pitcher on Sunday and it won't be until the end of the month (fingers crossed) that George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller are together again. The rotation is indeed so threadbare that Seattle is turning to "TBD" for Game 2 against the White Sox on Tuesday.

Even with all this said, though, this is certainly a "should win" series for the Mariners even if it doesn't quite fit into the genre of "can't lose."

They are unequivocally the better team of the two, and the Mariners could conceivably go 3-for-3 with Ws in this series even if their bats don't do the Frankenstein thing and come back to life. The White Sox are arguably the worst offensive team in all of MLB, as they are tied for last with a .619 OPS and scoring only 3.34 runs per game.

Even Chicago's "best" hitter (Miguel Vargas) only has a 114 OPS+. The team as a whole really struggles against four-seam fastballs and sliders, which is exploitable for the Mariners. Luis Castillo, who starts Monday, lives on his four-seamer and the whole staff throws the slider 26.0 percent of the time, the second-highest mark in the American League.

It'll be up to the usual suspects to carry the M's offensively. Julio Rodríguez is already warmer than he usually is this time of year, while Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford and Rowdy Tellez all homered in the Padres series. With 15 homers to his name for the season, Raleigh is one shy of Shohei Ohtani for the MLB lead.

The bottom line is that it'll be a major disappointment if the Mariners don't grow their division lead over the next three days. And some padding in that room would be nice, as their 2.5-game edge on the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers is the smallest division lead in the American League.

As unlikely as it is that the Mariners' division lead could be gone by Thursday, it is possible. If they somehow get swept by the White Sox, sweeps by the Astros (vs. Tampa Bay Rays) or Rangers (vs. New York Yankees) would indeed result in the AL West lead changing hands.

It is, of course, also possible that the Mariners' lead will grow as large as 5.5 games over the next few days. That'll partially be up to Houston and Texas, but all the Mariners have to do is take care of what should be eminently doable business against the White Sox.

Game Times and Probable Pitchers for Mariners vs. White Sox, May 19-21

• Monday, May 19 at 4:40 p.m. PT: Luis Castillo vs. Davis Martin
• Tuesday, May 20 at 4:40 p.m. PT: TBD vs. Bryse Wilson
• Wednesday, May 21 at 11:10 a.m. PT: Logan Evans vs. Shane Smith