MLB officials explode Mariners fans' hopes for a surprise Kyle Tucker signing

The Kyle Tucker daydream caught on because it made too much sense on paper for the Seattle Mariners. A club built on run prevention, anchored by Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh, staring at a window that’s open right now and clearly missing one more elite bat to scare October pitching.

Tucker fits that fantasy a little too well — age, skill set, postseason reps, a swing that plays anywhere. It’s the kind of dream that survives on vibes, hope, and a couple of national pieces loosely connecting Seattle to the top of the market.

Then the actual market reality walked in.

Mariners pushed to long-shot tier in Kyle Tucker chase by MLB execs

According to The Athletic’s polling of executives, the Dodgers sit alone on the top shelf of Tucker’s suitors, while the Mariners are pushed all the way down into Tier 8 alongside the Tigers — more “interesting if everything breaks weird” than legitimate favorite. That gap isn’t random disrespect; it’s a reflection of how the industry sees Tucker’s price tag and which clubs are truly built (or willing) to live in that stratosphere.

Tucker is widely projected as the position-player prize of this offseason’s free agent class, with multiple outlets expecting something in the neighborhood of a decade-long commitment and a guarantee brushing up against or eclipsing $400 million. That’s not “stretch your comfort zone” money. That’s “redefine your entire payroll architecture for a decade” money.

Drop that into Seattle’s actual books and it comes into focus fast. A Tucker deal in that range would cost more in guaranteed money than Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh’s contracts combined — a wild sentence to type about a franchise cornerstone outfielder and one of the best catchers in baseball.

It would mean asking a front office that hasn’t operated in the highest financial tier since the Robinson Canó deal (10 years, $240 million) to suddenly out-muscle the Dodgers and other mega-market bidders for one player, then still build a complete contender around three massive commitments and very little margin for error. That’s not how this group operates, and it’s not how the executives contacted by The Athletic expect this to play out.

Which is why, with respect to the local buzz pieces slotting Tucker onto hypothetical offseason target lists, he was never really Seattle’s guy. Not in this marketplace, not with this projected ask, and not with the Mariners’ very public, very recent pattern of shopping a rung or two down from the absolute top. 

Their path has been clear: protect the run prevention machine, layer in impact bats through trades or shorter-term deals, and preserve enough flexibility to keep augmenting around Julio and Cal instead of tying themselves to one megadeal that only the true financial bullies can comfortably swallow. Framed that way, the Tier 8 label isn’t an insult; it’s confirmation the rest of the league believes Seattle will behave like Seattle.

None of this means Mariners fans are wrong to crave a statement swing after coming that close. Tucker would absolutely look like the missing piece in right field on paper. But the officials surveyed have basically slammed the door on the fun version of this rumor mill — and that’s useful.

It forces the conversation back where it should’ve been all along: identifying the big bat (or bats) Seattle can land, the trades they’re willing to stomach, and the level of aggression ownership is prepared to show without pretending they’re suddenly the Dodgers’ financial twin. The Tucker dream made for a nice week of talk radio. Now it’s time for the front office to go do something real, and for the fanbase to judge them on the moves that were actually in play all along.