Mariners fans won't be pleasantly surprised by major free agent predictions

Thursday was a big day for those of us who are super into online baseball discourse. It's the day that MLB Trade Rumors released their predictions for this winter's free agent market, and you'll come away knowing a lot more if you take the time to read all 25,000 words of it.

Or, you could just do what we did: Do a CTRL+F for "Mariners" and come away knowing just a little more... and honestly, a little disappointed.

The Mariners are mentioned consistently, yet are only predicted by the four writers — Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald and Tim Dierkes — as a destination for four free agents:

• Josh Naylor: 3 out of 4
• Jorge Polanco: 2 out of 4
• Ryan O'Hearn: 1 out of 4
• Luke Weaver: 1 out of 4

That's it, and it's notable that only Naylor comes close to a consensus vote. The Mariners are otherwise merely mentioned as a potential landing spot for the market's big fish, such as Munetaka Murakami, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso.

MLB Trade Rumors' free agent predictions won't leave Mariners fans pleasantly surprised

Let's acknowledge that free agent predictions are not gospel. They are educated guesses, and the reluctance on the part of the writers to firmly attach the Mariners to prominent free agents is not a sign of disrespect.

If we are going to good-news, bad-news this thing, the good news is obviously the generally shared expectation that the Mariners will keep Naylor. And this is very much in step with how things feel in real life.

Per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, Justin Hollander referred to the All-Star first baseman as the club's No. 1 priority. And even at MLBTR's rate of $90 million over five years, he would fit nicely into the club's purported $30-35 million budget.

Meanwhile, MLBTR might be underrating the likelihood of Polanco also returning to the Mariners. They can do a $12-15 million per year deal and still stay within their budget even if they also bring back Naylor. He also doesn't have as broad of an appeal as Naylor, who is young, durable and talented in ways that can and can't be measured.

It would have been exciting if one of the four writers had been so bold as to actually predict the Mariners as the final destination for Murakami, Bregman or Alonso, much less other notables like Bo Bichette or Cody Bellinger. But that would have involved having faith in the Mariners to offer one of those guys a contract worth north of nine figures, and that's just not the franchise's bag.

Robbie Ray's five-year, $115 million contract from 2021 is the only nine-figure deal the Mariners have done in the Jerry Dipoto era, and it is a textbook case of a one-off. Apart from that, the most they've spent on a free agent under Dipoto is $24 million for Mitch Garver. Alas, neither deal produced much in the way of returns for Seattle.

If ever there was a good time for this pattern of frugality to end, it should be this winter. Indeed, the Mariners should be pushing the envelope after falling just one win short of finally reaching the World Series. And some do seem to expect that they will, with ESPN's Alden Gonzalez reporting that the Mariners are "widely expected to be aggressive in free agency."

It's all relative, though. If the Mariners commit, say, $120 million to Naylor and Polanco, that would be aggressive by their standards. It would also arguably be enough, as bringing back those two would only leave small holes in the roster that could potentially be filled later — even if "later" means the 2026 trade deadline.

There is, of course, the possibility that the Mariners will surprise us and actually reel in one of those big fish. But lest anyone get their hopes up, it's always the responsibility for Mariners fans to keep their expectations where they belong: in check.