MLB history strongly suggests the 2026 Mariners have already dug too deep a hole

Even following the Dodgers road series and with a losing record, we still believe the Mariners can turn things around and make the playoffs. This remains a talented roster that's also going to get some help courtesy of the front office's reported intention to be aggressive ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. At the same time, a deep dive into Major League history suggests the damage might be already all but done.

On a surface level things might not seem too bad even with a 53-57 record, with the Mariners just 2.5 games off the division summit and only 3.0 games out of an AL wild card spot. However, where the concern does -- or at least should -- come in, is when asking how many teams will at least 57 losses through 110 games have gone on to make the playoffs? And we'll admit we were shocked to find out it has only happened three times in Major League history.

Keep in mind this research goes all the way back to 1898, to really give you some context of the herculean task which stands before the Mariners. Are we still feeling as confident about their chances of making the playoffs? Here's a look at the three previous teams to achieve the impressive feat of overcoming such dire circumstances:

The most relevant case is clearly that of the Tigers in 2024, who went on a 31-13 run to end the regular season and claim the third and final wild card spot in the AL. (Particularly painful for the Mariners, given that they finished one game behind the Tigers in the standings.) It's not out of the question for the M's to do something similar, with memories of last season's run of 17 wins in 18 games during September still fresh in the mind.

The Mariners' vibe just isn't as strong as it was last season

This isn't last season though, no matter how much the bulk of the 2026 roster is similar. The defense is not as good, the pitching has been inconsistent at times and most of all, the offense has just been horrendous. This isn't even being hyperbolic, with the team third-worst in runs per game thanks to ranking tied-last in batting average, third-worst in slugging percentage and fourth-lowest in OPS.

Cal Raleigh clearly stands out as the biggest culprit, with his spectacular fall from grace after last season's AL-MVP worthy campaign. However, there are many others contributing to the poor overall offensive production, including the likes of Josh Naylor and Julio Rodríguez. If the Mariners' "Big 3" can't get it going, it won't matter who the front office brings in ahead of the trade deadline.

In terms of the intangibles, something just feels off with this team. Whereas last season's players exuded confidence and stability, this year's version isn't given the fanbase as much reason to keep the faith. Again, this is somewhat strange given the majority of the roster is the same as in 2025, but there's no getting around the reality that the vibe is just not the same.

Dan Wilson urgently needs to replicate what he achieved when he replaced Scott Servais

To be clear, we have no doubt this team likes each other and are collectively still working as hard as ever. However, we're concerned that there's an increasingly 2024-esque feel to this season's Mariners team. The media seems to have picked up on this as well, and now FanGraphs places their playoff odds below 50 percent after previously having them at nearly 90 percent in early June.

Despite the reference to 2024, things aren't quite as dire as they were two years ago, ironically when the Mariners last visited Dodger Stadium. On that occasion they were swept by the Dodgers, to conclude a demoralizing 1-8 road trip. The team had truly reached rock bottom and Scott Servais was fired as manager the very next day.

Irrespective of any comparisons, to say these are just challenging times for the Mariners would be underselling the state of things right now. The question is whether Dan Wilson can turn things around and have a similar influence to end the regular season, as he did when he replaced Servais by going 21-13. We'll continue to maintain belief in them, but if history is any indication, they may have already dug too deep a hole.

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