MLB free agent market is not helping Mariners' search for bullpen help

As we wait for the Seattle Mariners to trade for Brendan Donovan or, well, do literally anything to recover from the gut-punch of having lost Jorge Polanco to the New York Mets, it's important to remember that a big bat isn't the team's only big need.

Even after adding Jose A. Ferrer in a trade with the Washington Nationals, the Mariners still want to add another arm to the bullpen. That the club seems to have $15 million to play with after watching Polanco walk should be the silver lining, but this is one of those situations where "should" crashes into the unfortunate reality of what actually is.

High-priced MLB free agent market is not helping Mariners' search for bullpen help

Seen what's going on in the free-agent market for relievers? It's bonkers. Bonkers. One way we can tell is by comparing FanGraphs' projected contracts for 11 relievers to what they actually signed for, which reveals a stunning contrast:

• Projected: $230.1 million
• Secured: $313.25 million

That's close to a $100 million gap, and it exists even though former Mariner Edwin Díaz came in under his four-year, $84 million projection when he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for three years and $69 million. It's the secondary guys who have been getting inflated contracts, including one guy who seemed right up the Mariners' spending alley.

When the Winter Meetings concluded last week, Tyler Rogers was one of the relievers on the Mariners' radar who was still available. He was an odd fit in the sense that he doesn't have the swing-and-miss stuff that Seattle's pen lacked in 2025, but he at least would have brought a different look with his submarine throwing style. FanGraphs had him down for a one-year, $8 million projection, a figure that might have been eminently doable for the Mariners.

Instead, Rogers scored a three-year, $37 million deal from the Toronto Blue Jays.

All this action would seem to bode well for the top relievers left on the market, such as Pete Fairbanks, Seranthony Domínguez, Luke Weaver and Brad Keller. This, in turn, does not bode well for a Mariners front office that can't blow its remaining budget on one reliever. The aforementioned big bat is a real need, after all, and Andrew Knizner can't be the end of the Mariners' search for a backup catcher for Cal Raleigh.

This may be a situation that forces Jerry Dipoto to go hunting in the bargain bin for a reliever to round out next year's bullpen mix. There are some semi-compelling options there, including noted strike-thrower Chris Martin and workhorses like Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson. Evan Phillips, who's recovering from Tommy John surgery, could be signed and stashed for a second-half surge.

Alternatively, it might make just as much sense for the Mariners to turn back to the trade market, or even do nothing and put faith in options that are already in-house. To the latter end, Alex Hoppe, Charlie Beilensen and Tyler Cleveland are names to keep an eye on.

For the time being, it does seem as if the tone of Seattle's offseason has shifted. The quick strike on Josh Naylor positioned them to be one of the big winners of the winter. Several weeks later, they have work to do from having to settle for a draw.