There are losses that can be shrugged off, and then there are losses that make you look around for someone to blame. Jorge Polanco's defection to the New York Mets is one of the latter for Seattle Mariners fans, though the frustrating part is how hard it is to place blame on any of the relevant parties.
You can't blame Polanco. Returning to Seattle was his first choice, according to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times, but he simply couldn't turn down the Mets' two-year, $40 million offer. Nor should he have, as his new deal is worth nearly as much as he's made in his entire career.
You can't blame the Mariners. They made no secret of wanting Polanco back, and Jude's report notes that they made a "very competitive" offer. Given his age and iffy track record, anything beyond even two years, $30 million felt like too much to offer Polanco.
You can't blame the Mets either. Even if they did overbid for Polanco, $40 million is a drop in the bucket relative to Steve Cohen's overall wealth. They also had a need at first base, which Polanco now figures to fill.
But you know who can be blamed? The Baltimore Orioles, albeit in more of a fist-shaking way than one that would imply criminality.
Orioles unintentionally screwed over the Mariners by going all-in on Pete Alonso
It's quite simple, really: The Mets only needed Polanco at first because they failed to re-sign Pete Alonso, and they failed to re-sign Pete Alonso because the Orioles gave him a five-year, $155 million deal.
It wasn't a deal nobody saw coming, as the Orioles had been linked to the five-time All-Star slugger prior to signing him last week at the Winter Meetings. Yet it was still an upset, as they were known to be in the race against the Mets and Boston Red Sox, and apparently the Chicago Cubs as well. All three are revenue giants, whereas the Orioles areā¦not.
It is nonetheless clear now that the Orioles didn't win a close race to land Alonso. Per Tim Healey of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox's bid was for "fewer years and significantly less money." And according to Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Mets never even put in an offer to their all-time franchise home run leader.
Given their purported aversion to long-term deals, the Red Sox might not have raised their offer even if the Alonso sweepstakes had drawn out. And for their part, the Mets may have hoped to pull off a repeat win with their approach to Alonso's free agency last winter, when they waited out a cold market and brought him back on a two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out.
If so, the Mets clearly underestimated the Orioles. And even that's another "can't blame 'em" thing, as the O's couldn't have been expected to channel their notorious Chris Davis deal on a notably Chris Davis-like player. Beyond not normally being a big spender, the franchise didn't seem to need a bat that badly.
All the same, the Mariners' goose was cooked as soon as Alonso came off the board and the Mets had to go in search of other options. It was only a few days prior that ESPN's Jeff Passan was roundly dismissing the idea that Polanco was a $20 million per year player. That was when the Pittsburgh Pirates seemed to be the biggest threat to pillage Polanco. Even if they overbid, the Mariners still could have hoped to sway Polanco with familiarity and a much, much better shot at the World Series.
Perhaps there will be an oral history one day that explains exactly what happened in detail. For now, you have to imagine that a sense of dread instantly fell over the Mariners front office as soon as the Mets got involved on Polanco. And for that, they have the Orioles to thank.
