Matt Brash's hot start requires Mariners fans to ignore clear warning signs

Mariners fans are well aware by now after five decades, that things are never quite as good as they seem. Two particularly painful examples being 116 wins in 2001 and taking a 2-0 series lead in last year's ALCS versus the Blue Jays. While nowhere near as high stakes, this ongoing awareness also needs to be applied to Matt Brash's tremendous start to this season.

Prior to the 2026 campaign, Brash made the commendable decision not to represent Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, despite how proud he is of his country. He wanted to focus on getting ready for the long season ahead for the Mariners, factoring in his previous Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss more than year of action, with the early returns more than justifying his decision.

Following Tuesday night's clean eighth inning in a 7-1 road win versus the Twins, Brash has now made 13 appearances this season and is yet to allowed a single earned run. (He gave up an unearned run in the extra innings 8-7 road loss to the Angels.) From simply watching him pitch he looks almost untouchable. The velocity on the sinker up from 96.4 mph to 97.2 and his slider is just plain gnarly:

Matt Brash's early dominance shows how appearances can sometimes be deceiving

However, in what might sound like a Twilight Zone-esque plot, this is a case where Brash is probably worse then he looks right now, in some respects the opposite of where Andrés Muñoz finds himself at the moment. And while we won't go as far as claiming the Canadian is all smoke and mirrors, there's still some warning signs which need to be kept an eye on.

First up is that Brash has only managed eight Ks out of the 38 batters he's faced, resulting in a 21.1 percent strikeout rate. This is significantly down from his 29.1 percent strikeout rate last season, and below his career 31.1 percent strikeout rate entering the 2026 campaign.

Another couple of areas worth noting are Brash's exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which are both up significantly from the career-lows he set just last season. In fact current projections would see the 27-year-old set career-highs in each category:

Just to be clear, this is not some attempt to alarm Mariners fans, who never need much of an excuse to become anxious and think things are going to fall apart. This is more about pointing out that it's just a matter of time before Brash hits a rough patch. Heck, while he has a sterling 0.00 ERA up to this point, he also has a 3.76 xERA.

Brash will ultimately be fine as part of one of the top bullpen trios in the majors. This is still the same pitcher who was durable enough to lead all relievers with 78 appearances in 2023 and just last year started with 19 straight games not allowing an earned run. It's more a case of preparing folks for the reality that as with last season, the righty is likely going to see some downturn in his productivity at some point.

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