Mariners writer reveals key insight on non-tender options, Rule 5 Draft protections

Now that the World Series is officially behind us, we can turn our collective attention towards what's already been a busy offseason. Seriously, we're less than 24 hours into it and there's already been a slew of action around the league. Perhaps the biggest move of the day was the trade between the Braves and Angels that saw the clubs swap Jorge Soler and Griffin Canning.

The Seattle Mariners figure to be one of the more active teams this winter as they look to capitalize on their open contention window. The AL West may have been up in the air for the vast majority of the 2024 regular season, but the Astros and Rangers are serious threats and the Mariners must do what they can this offseason to get a leg up on the competition.

Mariners insider shares thoughts on potential arbitration decisions

One of the first things on Seattle's to-do list is to figure out their arbitration situation and determine which players will be tendered new contracts and which ones will be sent packing. They have a total of 12 arb-eligible players due for raises, highlighted by George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and Logan Gilbert. Those players are coming back.

Others have futures that are a bit more uncertain. Mariners insider Daniel Kramer of MLB.comshared in his most recent newsletter that he believes infielder Luis Urias is the clearest candidate to be non-tendered. He's due for a raise on his $5 million salary and the M's are unlikely to pay that after what he put forward in 2024.

Kramer notes that Josh Rojas is another interesting case in his own arbitration eligibility. The utilityman was just about as streaky as they came last season, but Kramer says that the hot stretches and huge improvements he made defensively make him a solid bet to return to the club next year with a brand new contract.

Mariners Rule 5 Draft decisions

Kramer moved on to the Rule 5 Draft and shared the three prospects he believes must be added to the Mariners' 40-man roster above anyone else. Any players exposed to the R5D can be taken by any other club in the game, but they must be kept on the claiming team's active roster all year long. There are plenty of risks that come with a Rule-5 selection, but there are also diamonds in the rough waiting to be uncovered.

According to Kramer, Taylor Dollard (MLB Pipeline No. 21 Mariners prospect), Jimmy Joyce (No. 23) and Carlos Jimenez (No. 28) are the three that need to be protected first and foremost. He also names Travis Kuhn and Jordan Jackson — both of whom are currently playing in the Arizona Fall League — as minor leaguers to keep an eye on in the protection phase.

Dollard, 25, made just three starts in 2023 before going down with a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder. The recovery wound up taking the rest of '23 and the entirety of '24, which severely hurt the momentum had be built up in 2022 when he went 16-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 27 Double-A starts. Even though his prospect stock has taken a bit of a hit, he's a player that needs to be kept around, because we've seen what he can do when he's on his A-game.

Joyce, 25, had a down year in 2024, but his recent past performances suggest that he's got the potential to be a solid big-league contributor. Walks have been an issue for him at times, but he's a high-strikeout pitcher that has experience as both a starter and reliever.

Then there's the 21-year-old Jimenez, who has flashed a ton of different tools since joining the Mariners' system in 2021. His power is very much still developing, but Jimenez hit .318 with a .933 OPS along with 22 stolen bases and 53 RBI in 81 minor-league games this year. He can bounce around the outfield, is quick on his feet and a patient hitter. There's little to no shot he'd be taken in the R5D this offseason because of his age and how raw he is, but he could end up being a real stud for the Mariners down the line.