As the Seattle Mariners prepare for an extremely important offseason, the club is going to have to make a total of 12 decisions on arbitration-eligible players. This list includes star catcher Cal Raleigh, co-aces Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, and outfielder Randy Arozarena, all of whom are locks to be brought back.
But that leaves a pretty large group of players that don't have as much certainty. Going down the line, nearly every relief pitcher who's eligible for a pay raise is likely to return based on usage and performance this past season.
That leaves a handful of players who are due for raises that they either haven't earned, or that the Mariners won't feel like paying. MLB Trade Rumors has offered their projected arb salary figures, so we'll take those into account when determining who should not be brought back next season.
4 Mariners who are candidates to be non-tendered this offseason
Sam Haggerty
Haggerty has performed admirably for the Mariners in each of the past two years, but his 1-for-15 showing in eight big-league games this season may have lost him a job. Despite the fact that he's posted an OPS+ north of 100 (league-average) in each of the past two seasons, he's a light-hitting utility player that's easily replacable. The Mariners will have options both internally and externally to fill his role, even if MLBTR predicts he'd only earn $900K in arbitration.
Josh Rojas
In what is likely to be his only full year in Seattle, Rojas lost his way on offense while remaining an above-average defender at the hot corner. If the Mariners are willing to sacrifice some defensive prowess for a stronger bat (which they should be), Rojas and his projected $4.3 million contract will be good as gone. The Mariners are at a point where the players they have on their roster need to be performing, and Rojas' .641 OPS is not going to cut it moving forward.
Gabe Speier
Trent Thornton, JT Chargois and Austin Voth will all be kept around, but Speier ($900K) is the one reliever who could be non-tendered, despite the fact MLBTR predicts a dirt-cheap arbitration salary for him. The 29-year-old made it into 29 games for Seattle this year, posting a 5.70 ERA and 65 ERA+ across 23 2/3 innings of work. His 3.51 FIP suggests that he performed better than his surface-level stats like ERA show, but he walked over five batters per nine innings, which won't cut it. The Mariners never have a problem finding bullpen talent, so Speier can easily be replaced.
Luis Urias
Urias managed to post a 105 OPS+ this year in 41 games despite the fact that his batting average of .191 was below the Mendoza Line. He hasn't been a reliable big-league contributor since back in 2022 and has hit under .200 in each of the past two years. MLBTR predicts Urias will earn $5 million in arbitration, which is entirely too much for a player that the Mariners won't even be able to lean on much next year. His shaky production in the recent past makes him a lock to be a goner coming up soon here.