Mariners watching Julio Rodríguez sabotage his stardom with bad habit he must kick

It makes sense that the Mariners' worst season in recent memory has coincided with a big step back for the face of their franchise. Last year was the most valuable year of Julio Rodríguez's big-league career by rWAR (6.6) and after a scorching May, it seemed like he had finally put the "slow starter" allegations behind him. Fans expected the typical second-half surge would come after the All-Star break and carry the team into a second consecutive postseason berth.

But the second-half surge never came. The August we've come to expect out of Julio came and went without much fanfare and since June, his numbers have only regressed. In his 347 plate appearances since June 1st, he has a wRC+ of just 82, fourth-worst among AL outfielders across that span. There are plenty of reasons for his struggles at the plate, but one quality has been rearing its ugly head since he debuted.

Julio Rodríguez's plate discipline continues to be a critical weakness in his hitting approach

Those that are critical of Julio often cite his tendency to swing at bad pitches way out of the zone and though many of these complaints are based purely on the eye test, the data supports this. He has never had a chase rate lower than 33.5% in any season and his career average of 36.6% is significantly higher than the league-average of 28.6%.

Not only is he swinging at pitches outside of the zone, he's also more passive on pitches inside the zone. His overall swing rate is down from 55.4% in 2025 to 51.7% in 2026 and more importantly, his zone-swing rate is down year over year from 75.4% to just 68.5%. Although his bat speed and quality of contact have remained excellent as always, he's unable to make the most out of his strengths.

Aside from a slip in his offensive production, he's had a few defensive mishaps as well. In the Brewers' crushing 22-0 blowout, Julio caught the second out and promptly threw the ball into the stands. This practice isn't uncommon but is at the very least frowned upon when the bases are loaded, for obvious reasons. Though that mental error was ultimately inconsequential as Seattle was already down by 19 runs with Leo Rivas on the mound, his more recent errors have been more costly.

Decision-making in baseball is hard, especially in the batter's box where they have just milliseconds to pull the trigger on swinging or taking. It's understandable that in a season as tough as this one, Julio may be showing signs of slipping focus. Nonetheless, it's frustrating to see a player post a league-average OPS+ of 100 despite having some of the best tools in the sport.

As a team, the Mariners have plenty of things to work on this offseason. Their shortcomings have transcended the baseball world and have entered the world of mainstream sports discourse. While the front office is responsible for fixing what has been an underwhelming roster across the board, Julio has a more concentrated area of improvement.

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