Mariners' top trade chip Michael Arroyo should only be used as Mason Miller bait

There's a certain "Is he coming or going?" energy hanging over Michael Arroyo. There has been buzz about the Seattle Mariners calling him up to the majors. He's also been alluded to as trade bait, though one is unsure how that works unless the return is Mason Miller. And, like, literally only Mason Miller.

It'll take a lot to move that needle. Whereas the Mariners have their fans feeling like they'd find more cheer in a graveyard, a recent five-game winning streak has the San Diego Padres back over .500 and in the thick of the National League wild-card race. Such a team may not be willing to deal anyone, much less the best closer in baseball.

But is this license for the Mariners to give up on Miller? It is not. Even if the Padres are purportedly telling teams that nobody can be off-limits if they want the two-time All-Star, there's an equation here in which Arroyo is part of a mutually beneficial deal between Seattle and San Diego.

Michael Arroyo is a natural fit as a centerpiece in a Mariners-Padres Mason Miller trade

There were rumors last week about the Padres seeking an MLB-ready starter for Miller, perhaps in addition to multiple top-100 prospects. If so, these stances (or just a singular stance) have presumably not gotten weaker since San Diego remembered how to win.

Either way, the Mariners have as much incentive as any team in the league to not balk at San Diego's demands. Miller is the best possible addition they can make to a bullpen that needs another swing-and-miss arm to pair with Andrés Muñoz. They also have more starters and prospects than they frankly need.

If the Padres must have a starter for Miller, there can be no mistake that Emerson Hancock is the least the Mariners can offer. Honestly, they'd have to be prepared to give up George Kirby instead. Regardless, it's hard to imagine any scenario in which A.J. Preller doesn't also take an interest in Arroyo as a deal-sweetener.

He's the No. 40 prospect in MLB, and his bat has yielded a 149 wRC+ in 43 games across Double-A and Triple-A since June 1. He also plays left field and second base, two positions where the Padres rank exactly 26th in MLB for rWAR.

Other good fits for Michael Arroyo? Not so much.

No matter what happens between Seattle and San Diego vis-à-vis Miller, that's at least one scenario that justifies Miller's inclusion in MLB.com's recent round-up of prospects who are most likely to be traded.

But does anyone see any others?

Since Arroyo is a right-handed hitter in his own, um, right, he's an awkward trade chip for a righty hitter. Maybe if the return was someone like Otto Lopez or Zach Neto, but the complication with them is basically the same, but flipped: Why would the Miami Marlins or Los Angeles Angels trade an accomplished, controllable righty hitter for a more controllable, yet unaccomplished one?

Arroyo works better as a centerpiece for a controllable, closer-caliber reliever. Those aren't widely available in the best of times, and Miller is basically one-of-one on this market. Perhaps it's tempting to think of a swap for Garrett Whitlock of the Boston Red Sox or Orion Kerkering of the Philadelphia Phillies, but either would require those two clubs to lose the plot. Yes, they need right-handed bats. But no, subtracting major bullpen pieces for a guy with zero MLB at-bats is not the answer.

Given how wrong things are going for the Mariners, perhaps the real question is whether all this is screaming into the void as Jerry Dipoto prepares to sell at Monday's 3:00 p.m. PT trade deadline. Whatever the final answer is, there's only one that the fanbase is going to accept.

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