Padres' reported Mason Miller asking price plays directly into Mariners' hands

The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres hooking up on a trade? It's been done. The Mariners and Padres hooking up on a Mason Miller trade? Now we're talking. It hasn't been done, but it arguably should.

We know the Mariners want a reliever ahead of the August 3 trade deadline, and maybe even one good enough to build a "super 'pen." And while Miller actually being available seemed far-fetched at first, now it's a question of whether anyone will pay the right price.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, it'll take "at least two top-100 prospects" to ride this ride. And during an appearance on "The Pat McAfee Show," ESPN's Jeff Passan posited that “major league-ready starting pitching" is what could really whet the Padres' appetite to move the two-time All-Star closer.

If so, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller might as well be winking at his opposite number in Seattle's front office. Jerry Dipoto has what Preller wants. All six of the Mariners' starting pitchers are controlled beyond 2026, and in the farm system are six prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100, including near-MLB-ready hurlers Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan.

Is Miller worth such a high ask? Well, let's see… he throws 104 mph and he's struck out over half the batters he's faced in his last 60 appearances, all while allowing just four earned runs. He's also under club control through 2029. So, that's a "yes."

Any trade the Mariners make for Mason Miller would make fans nervous

George Kirby and Michael Arroyo for Miller is a popular pitch that we've gotten in on, but the concept was polarizing even before the Rosenthal and Sammon report revealed it to be potentially too light of an offer. One gets it. Kirby is a horse who isn't a free agent until after 2028. Arroyo doesn't have a clear defensive home, but he's the best right-handed hitter in Seattle's farm system.

If not Kirby, though, the Mariners would have to be prepared to talk about Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock. Hancock is the most palatable choice on that menu, but also the one that would require a greater sacrifice in terms of prospect talent.

If Hancock is the MLB-ready hurler in the deal, then Preller would be foolish to accept anything less than Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celesten. Those are the best prospects the Mariners have outside of Anderson and Sloan, both of whom ought to be untouchable. As such, Kirby plus Arroyo and, say, Luke Stevenson is arguably preferable.

The chance the Mariners would be taking either way is that Anderson or Sloan would be able to fill the shoes of whichever starter departs. The benefit, though, would be the successful construction of the "super 'pen." Hypothetically, the combination of Miller, Andrés Muñoz, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and Jose A. Ferrer would turn postseason games into five-inning challenges. If the Mariners are tied or leading going into the sixth, it would basically be over.

That alone wouldn't guarantee the Mariners' first ever World Series berth, but it might represent the best path this team can hope for. Unless the offense has another level that hasn't shown up all year, leaning into run prevention is the way to go.

Either way, we'll find out if Dipoto agrees in less than two weeks.

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