Mariners' Tarik Skubal dreams get a flicker of new life amid Tigers collapse

The American League is a mess, and Jerry Dipoto's preferred strategy seems to be to just wait it out. What a shame, as the Seattle Mariners president of baseball operations could be thinking about making something of all those Tarik Skubal rumors from the winter.

Yes, the situation with the Detroit Tigers is that bad. Skubal last pitched on April 29 before he abruptly needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. The Tigers have since lost 15 out of 20 to fall into last place in the AL Central.

This bring us to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who posted on Wednesday that the chances of the Tigers trading the two-time AL Cy Young Award winner are "rising."

Even if all of that is true — the part about Skubal progressing well from surgery checks out, at least — it takes effort to force the Mariners into this equation. Their problem is having too much starting pitching, so what the heck do they need with Skubal?

Well, if you want to win the World Series, you have to have the best team. And to have the best team, it sure helps to have the best pitcher.

Not many teams can afford the price for Tarik Skubal, and the Mariners are one of them

The argument above is exactly the same as the one in favor of the Mariners trading for Skubal over the winter. And while his elbow surgery does introduce an unexpected variable into the math, said math for his acquisition cost does work to Seattle's advantage.

FanSided's Robert Murray is on that, surveying three different executives who generally agree that nobody is getting Skubal for less than a couple top-100 prospects. It's a lot for a pitcher who is A) still recovering from elbow surgery, B) making $32 million and C) a free agent after the end of the season… but it's also literally Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball when he's healthy.

Per MLB Pipeline, the Mariners have six top-100 prospects in their system. With as hot as Felnin Celesten is right now, maybe the true number is seven. Either way, they have what the Tigers would need to be convinced to part with Skubal, in a way that few other teams do.

If we're talking actual needs, the Mariners should be looking for bats and bullpen arms. Yet each could be solved in-house through injury returns, in which case only wants will remain. To that end, using the trade market to enhance areas that are already strengths is a sound strategy.

Just think of it. A playoff rotation with Skubal in Game 1 and some combination of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in Games 2, 3 and 4, with Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock in the bullpen. That's smoke absolutely nobody will want.

Teasing the fantasy out this far and no further feels like the responsible endpoint. We're still talking about a long shot, after all. It's just that when it comes to the best possible trade the Mariners might make this summer, this is one of the only clear answers out there right now.

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