Mariners signal Jorge Polanco strategy with crucial qualifying offer decision

The Seattle Mariners just keep checking boxes in these early days of the MLB offseason. All their contract options have been either picked up or declined, and now they have offered a hint as to how they value Jorge Polanco.

After Polanco unsurprisingly chose to decline his $6 million player option for 2026 on Wednesday, the next question was whether the Mariners would make him a qualifying offer. It was a tricky decision, as it meant dangling a $22.025 million salary and seeing if he would go for it or take his chances on the open market with draft compensation hanging over his head.

Evidently, the Mariners didn't think the risk of Polanco accepting the offer was worth it. They officially opted against making the 32-year-old veteran a qualifying offer on Thursday, whereas offers went out to 13 free agents elsewhere around the league.

Mariners signal their strategy on Jorge Polanco after declining to make him a qualifying offer

This isn't the most surprising development. Yes, Polanco is coming off a season in which he racked up 26 home runs, 30 doubles and a career-high 134 OPS+, not to mention a postseason in which he played the hero multiple times. But he was a 1-ish WAR player in 2023 and 2024, and his red flags (i.e., age, past injuries and defensive limitations) aren't subtle.

Had the Mariners extended the $22.025 million offer to Polanco, he would have been more likely than not to accept it. That would have thrown a wrench into their offseason plans, as it would have evaporated roughly two-thirds of their offseason budget — somewhere in the $30-35 million range, according to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.

To be clear, the Mariners have not shut the door on Polanco. He may still be the most likely of their free agents to return, and the highest valuation we've seen is a two-year, $30 million projection from Ben Clemens of FanGraphs. We'll venture a guess that the hope is to sign him for what the qualifying offer would have paid, except for two years rather than one.

As Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez were ineligible for the qualifying offer, Polanco was the only Mariners free agent who was ever a candidate to get one. And of the players who did get qualifying offers, not many are potential fits in Seattle.

You can likely cross off the seven starting pitchers, and the Mariners don't need relief help badly enough to drop a potential nine-figure deal on Edwin Díaz.

That leaves the five hitters, among whom Trent Grisham doesn't really fit and Kyle Tucker is likely way beyond Seattle's price range. As each is likely to clear nine figures, Kyle Schwarber and Bo Bichette are at best extreme maybes for the Mariners. Gleyber Torres should be more affordable, but we're not a fan of the fit.

Which is ultimately to say that the Mariners probably aren't a candidate to go shopping in the qualifying offer rejects aisle. And that is just as well, as signing one of them would cost their third-highest pick in the 2026 draft in addition to money.

Also of note is that Luis Arraez and Devin Williams did not get qualifying offers despite being candidates for one. Each would fill a need in Seattle, though the Williams possibility is another that doesn't fly with us.

All told, the Mariners got clarity on Thursday if nothing else. They can now begin their offseason shopping with clear heads, and hopefully high ambitions as well.