Mariners should seek bullpen twist with Emilio Pagán after turning down Reds

Major League Baseball's free agent market is about to open on Monday, and that'll be the Seattle Mariners' cue to start making calls. As much as they obviously need offense, solutions for that are less likely to come from the open market than solutions for the bullpen.

All possible upgrades need to be on the table, including Adrian Morejon so long as the contract isn't too exorbitant. There are also a handful of options that wouldn't break the bank, including a free-agent newcomer who would add a much-needed different look to the pen: Emilio Pagán.

He's had a solid run since breaking in with the Mariners in 2017, as his career now consists of 522 appearances and, more recently, 57 saves across the last two seasons with the Cincinnati Reds. He could have signed up for another year with Cincinnati in 2027, but Francys Romero of BeisbolFR reported Saurday that the 35-year-old righty had declined a $10 million player option.

It's possible that the two sides will hammer out a new contract before the market opens on Monday, but it seems unlikely. Pagán clearly thinks there's more than $10 million out there for him, and the best way to find out is to actually hit the market and look around.

Mariners have reasons to covet Emilio Pagán despite his obvious red flags

There are risks that will come with signing Pagán. Though he has generally been good throughout his career, he's also had peaks and valleys. He's had five seasons with an ERA over 4.00, and he was rocking a 6.23 ERA as late as July 19 this year.

Prospective buyers should also beware Pagán's velocity. It's another peaks-and-valleys part of his career journey. The 94.9 mph he averaged this year was in line with his career norm of 95.0 mph, but about a mile per hour below the 95.8 mph he averaged last year. Given his age, the downward shift could prove to be permanent.

If nothing else, though, Pagán stands to benefit from getting away from Great American Ball Park. It's a notorious launching pad, and you can really see that in the splits for Pagán's three seasons as a Red:

This should especially appeal to the Mariners. If there's an exact opposite of Great American Ball Park as an environment for hitters, it's pretty much T-Mobile Park.

Beyond that, Pagán's pitch mix mostly fared just fine in 2026. He once again relied heavily on a four-seam fastball that features above-average induced vertical break, and it held hitters to a batting average under .200. His cutter did the same, leaving his splitter as the ugly duckling with a .304 average against it. Yet given that it also had a .206 xBA and a 41.5 Whiff%, that looks like a fluke.

As for the aforementioned different look Pagán can provide, he'd be a right-hander out of the pen who isn't a fastball-slider guy. Despite variations on pitch types and shapes, that is more or less the book on Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Seranthony Domínguez, Eduard Bazardo and Carlos Vargas. To an extent, one wonders how much their general sameness contributed to the bullpen's broader struggles this year.

Another quality Pagán has that these guys don't is extension. He releases the ball from an average of 6.8 feet, which is in the 79th percentile. Seattle's incumbent righties max out at 6.6 feet, in the 62nd percentile.

Since he turned down $10 million for 2027, signing Pagán will presumably cost more than that for one season, and at least that much per year for multiple seasons. Yet there's ample upside here to justify such demands, and the Mariners ultimately have more cause than most to stretch their comfort zone.

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