Mariners should root for massive Alex Bregman contract clogging up Astros payroll

While Mariners fans focus on Jerry Dipoto, Justin Hollander and owner John Stanton's commitment to building a winning team, one of the biggest developments in Seattle's quest for an American League West title lies with the defender division champions.

After building a dynasty that made seven straight ALCS appearances, four total World Series appearances (with victories in 2017 and 2022), the Astros' streak finally ended after losing to the Tigers in the Wild Card round this past season.

One of the most dominant offenses built included guys like Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, George Springer, and Alex Bregman. In 2024, their pitching was dealt blow after blow, only to be rescued by the deadline acquisition of Yusei Kikuchi. Now, the Astros face a pivotal offseason with Kikuchi and Justin Verlander headed for free agency along with star third baseman Alex Bregman.

Mariners could benefit from Astros' possible long-term deal with Alex Bregman

For Seattle, Bregman seems like a name that fans would love to see out of the division, but him signing with Houston could be a blessing in disguise. When you look at the struggles that the Astros faced in 2024, it was largely on the pitching side of things. Prior to the trade deadline, the Astros had the 15th-best pitching staff in baseball, but then jumped all the way up to No. 3 post-deadline. From the beginning of the year until July 31, the Astros had a 56-52 record. After the deadline, when they acquired Kikuchi, they proceeded to go 32-22, claiming the AL West division crown in the process.

That's not to say that Kikuchi is the more valuable player than Bregman, but this is a team that very obviously lacks pitching depth. They could lose Verlander and Kikuchi while guys like Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, and JP France all face significant injuries and pose serious question marks about the 2025 Astros staff.

Because of these questions surrounding the pitching staff, Houston could opt to forego a Bregman extension, instead opting for younger, cheaper options, while looking to bolster their starting rotation. They could explore familiar options like Kikuchi, or one of the other high-end starters like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell or Max Fried — something that should scare Seattle.

For Mariners fans, Houston continuing to face rotation problems seems like the best way to finally overtake the Astros for the AL West. According to MLBTraderumors.com, Bregman is estimated to get seven-years and $182 million, an AAV of $26M. That could really cripple the Astros ability to build around him.

Who knows, maybe it even prevents them from re-signing Kyle Tucker when the time comes, allowing the Mariners to swoop in and nab their right fielder of the future next offseason. One can dream, right?