Mariners' reluctance on Tarik Skubal trade reeks of Jerry Dipoto's infamous mantra

The Seattle Mariners have been the subject of a "will they, won't they" dance around Tarik Skubal for months, but it's truly only ever been a "they could, they won't" dance. Trading for him would require going all-in on one season, and that's not Jerry Dipoto's style.

This message has been imparted in various forms by what feels like an army of insiders, and now Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is leading the charge. His latest intel raises the Mariners as a possibility for Skubal, but people familiar with their plans say they "do not expect to pursue" the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

It has never been about whether the AL West-leading Mariners can afford to rent Skubal, a free-agent-to-be with a $32 million salary, for the final months of the 2026 season. They have arguably the best farm system in the American League, plus controllable major league arms like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock. On paper, they're a dream trading partner for the Detroit Tigers.

But as Rosenthal tells it, the Mariners believe "it would make little sense to acquire Skubal for two or three months" in exchange for, say, two years' worth of Gilbert or three years' worth of Kirby. And in the abstract, you can see how that's indeed not a balanced equation.

Unless, that is, the only endgame that matters is winning the World Series.

Mariners' risk-aversion with Tarik Skubal proves that Jerry Dipoto can't change his stripes

After going 0-for-49 in their attempts to win the World Series before 2026, the last thing anyone can accuse the Mariners of being is indifferent toward that exact goal. They do want to bring home the Commissioner's Trophy, and they have put themselves in a position to do so throughout the 2020s.

And yet, president of baseball operation Jerry Dipoto's infamous "54 percent" remark from 2023 still reverberates, especially when you read stuff like what's in Rosenthal's report.

Granted, that remark was mistaken for a stated goal to win 54 percent of games annually, when Dipoto was actually implying a 54 percent win rate over many years. Last year arguably proved the concept. It capped a five-season run in which the Mariners posted a .547 winning percentage, and the finale was a run to Game 7 of the ALCS — closer than they had ever come to the World Series.

As a strategy, though, this is taking the approach of surrounding a World Series title and waiting until it surrenders. It leaves no room for full-frontal assault that would be much riskier, but with greater promise of finally achieving long-awaited victory.

This is why a Skubal trade remains such a fascinating topic of conversation among fans. Though there are compelling alternatives, there is no better player the Mariners can get for right now. And after 50 years, patience begins to feel less like a virtue and more like a burden.

Given what he has built over the last decade, Dipoto's calculations deserve some level of faith from Mariners fans. But if ever there was a time and a reason for him to go with his gut on a Hail Mary, it's in 2026 with a trade for Skubal.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow