Mariners must not to fall for Josh Naylor's campaign to get re-signed

If one of Josh Naylor's current goals is to convince the Seattle Mariners that they simply can't let him leave as a free agent this winter, it's hard to fault him for how he's going about it.

He's done just about everything in his power to make himself a fan favorite since he came over from the Arizona Diamondbacks in a July 24 trade. His intensity has added a different edge to the Mariners' clubhouse culture, and his 12 stolen bases have been an unexpected treat.

And now, Naylor is talking a good game about how much the love affair Seattle has with him is very much mutual. This was him speaking on "Wyman and Bob" of Seattle Sports:

"The fan base is crazy. It’s, like, almost electric. You can sometimes feel the ground shaking a little bit when something cool happens...So far the fan base has been awesome. Even my family says they’re incredible and probably one of their favorites that they’ve had in my career, so they love coming here now just to kind of be a part of this atmosphere."

Josh Naylor on Wyman and Bob

Naylor took things a step further by offering a decidedly contrarian take on T-Mobile Park: “I’ve always liked hitting here. I think it’s a hitter’s park more than a pitcher’s park, to be honest. I think it’s easy to hit here.”

There's no reason to doubt Naylor is sincere about any of this. Mariners fans have shown him a ton of love since his arrival a week before the trade deadline, and even his remark about T-Mobile Park doesn't fall flat. He has a 1.088 OPS there in 15 games so far.

And yet, the necessary word of warning to the Mariners is this: Don't take the bait.

Josh Naylor's open praise for Seattle feels like a trap for the Mariners

Look, having Naylor at first base sure beats what the Mariners had before, which was a largely non-functional combination of Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. And with Tyler Locklear now in Arizona by way of the Eugenio Suárez trade, it is likewise true that the Mariners lack a Plan B for first base if Naylor does walk as a free agent.

There is nonetheless the question of what it will cost the Mariners to retain Naylor. He could be looking at as much as a nine-figure payday, or at least $20-plus million annually in a short-term deal — a la what fellow first baseman Christian Walker and Pete Alonso got last offseason.

Either way, he doesn't figure to come cheap. And as easy as it is to root for Naylor right now, his profile is one that doesn't quite warrant the Brinks truck treatment.

Even since he ostensibly broke out as a star in 2022, Naylor has only averaged 1.8 rWAR per 162 games. He is not one of the 100 most valuable hitters of the last four seasons, and he isn't even in the top 10 among first basemen.

Naylor has been more of a 20-homer guy who has only one 30-homer season on his record. He's also not much for walks, and is generally rated as more of a solid fielder than an exceptional one. And as extraordinary as it is that he's stolen 23 bases in 25 tries — mostly through sheer determination — he's a 2nd-percentile sprinter and he isn't going to get any faster.

Though it doesn't feel like it's been the case, Naylor has also been colder as a Mariner than he was as a Diamondback. He has a .701 OPS as a Mariner, compared to a .807 OPS with his previous team.

There's still the odd social media post or two about the Mariners needing to extend Naylor ASAP, but the smart play is to let him hit free agency and then hope the market does for them what it did for the New York Mets with Alonso: Force him to return where he came from on a team-friendly deal.

If there's a team out there that does think Naylor is worth the Brinks truck treatment, then so be it. There will be other first basemen for the Mariners out there, including potentially more affordable options like Luis Arraez and Ryan O'Hearn.

This is not to say it wouldn't hurt to say goodbye to Naylor. But in the long run, recklessly paying a bunch of money for his decline years would hurt more.