Josh Naylor's free-agent price tag all but ensures his departure from Mariners

The Seattle Mariners' offense has been cruising over the past couple of weeks. The post-trade deadline lineup has already made history thanks to improved numbers at the plate for nearly everyone, but leading the charge has been Josh Naylor.

Leading all hitters on the team with a 1.013 OPS over the past two weeks, he has been a wonderful change of pace for a team that hasn't had a great bat at first base in years. Unfortunately, the organization might have to go back to the drawing board after the conclusion of this season.

Josh Naylor could be priced out of a free agent deal with the Mariners

This offseason, Naylor will be a free agent for the first time in his career. The Mariners will have as much of a chance to offer him a contract as any of the other 29 MLB teams, but if he maintains the torrid pace he's currently on, his stock as a player could exceed Seattle's financial restrictions.

In a recent conversation with Brock and Salk on Seattle Sports, ESPN's Jeff Passan remarked that Naylor could possibly ink a deal worth more than $100 million. It's more speculation than certainty, especially given how financially conservative teams have tended to be with first basemen.

Other than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s monstrous $500 million extension, the only other recent contracts offered to first basemen that eclipsed the nine-figure mark have been to Matt Olson (eight years, $168 million) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million). All three of these players had far more established careers at the time of signing and while Naylor is a solid player in his own right, his career OPS+ of 115 would draw questions about his ability to be a major offensive contributor over the long-term.

On the other hand, contracts have gotten somewhat out of control recently. Although it's over a longer span of 14 years, Guerrero's deal carries an annual average value of $35.7 million, a number in the same ballpark as Gerrit Cole, Mike Trout, and Francisco Lindor. With this extension being signed earlier this season, it could have an inflationary effect on first base contracts across the league.

Furthermore, Naylor will be one of the only impactful candidates at the role with other impending free agent first basemen on the older side (Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt) or less productive than league-average (Ty France, Wilmer Flores). These factors, plus the 151 OPS+ he has posted since arriving in Seattle, could all push up his final price tag, making it less likely the Mariners offer him a chance to come back.

Even in the face of rising market prices, the Mariners have held fast to their more frugal ideals. Other than the Julio Rodríguez extension, the largest deal they've signed recently was Cal Raleigh's $105 million contract and that has already delivered immense value. They're typically tentative about longer term contracts, especially for position players that aren't homegrown talents.

If Naylor and the team are able to meet at a more agreeable price, it could give Seattle the first base pop they've needed at the position for years. Otherwise, if the market does drive his price out of the organization's financial comfort zone, then this short but wonderful stint may be all that we get out of him in a Mariners uniform.